Let's go back to four months ago.
The college basketball season is winding down, and Michael Beasley is posting the best numbers of any freshman in a long time. He is carrying a Kansas State team to the NCAA tournament and is the consensus No. 1 pick in most NBA mock drafts.
Does anyone remember that? When Beasley was playing, people saw a strong, active big man with unbelievable scoring ability. He could score with both hands, inside and outside, and he was also a fantastic rebounder.
Let's rewind the tape back to a year ago now.
Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, like Derrick Rose and Beasley this year, are the consensus top two picks in the draft. Durant was the super-productive big man whose team bowed out to USC early in the tournament, just like Beasley. Oden was the hyped up center with a charming personality and the appearance of someone who had played in the NBA for years.
Oden helped carry his team to the NCAA finals, only to lose in the championship game, just like Derrick Rose did.
When the draft came around, Oden went first and Durant went second.
This year, people are ignoring Beasley's entire season's body of work and focusing more on Rose's postseason heroics. Rose was a top player all season long, but Beasley was usually considered the better prospect.
There's also a major difference between Oden and Rose: Oden is a big man. The NBA has always been about building around a center in the mold of Duncan, Shaq, Hakeem, or Robinson.
You have to go back to 1996 if you want to find a player below 6'8" who has been taken No. 1 overall (Allen Iverson). Since 1996, all but one player taken first has been a power forward or a center, with LeBron James being the exception.
At 6'7" or 6'8", Beasley does not have the prototypical size for a power forward, but his rebounding ability, strength, and wingspan should allow him to play the position fine. He's not the best defensively, but his play on defense improved as the season went on.
Rose is a great prospect. He actually reminds me of another player from that Ohio State team, Mike Conley. Rose is bigger and slightly more athletic than Conley, but Conley was a similar prospect who played better defense than Rose.
Oden, Durant, and Al Horford all went ahead of Conley, whose stock only soared that high because of his postseason play.
The only reason Rose is probably going to be picked first is because Beasley may have minor character issues. I think a lack of a consistent jump shot and his turnover problems for much of the season are a bigger problem.
But there is one remaining factor in who should go first, and that is what team has the pick and what their needs are. The Chicago Bulls have that pick.
Two years ago, the Bulls gave Kirk Hinrich a big contract to be their point guard for the foreseeable future. Then Hinrich rewarded them by having a good season offensively and being named to the second team of the all-defensive team.
Hinrich is not the best playmaker in the world, but the Bulls need his defense and perimeter shooting ability. With Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Thabo Sefolosha, Chris Duhon, and Larry Hughes, the Bulls have guards with different skillsets. They are fine there.
What the Bulls lack is a go-to guy. All those guards are good complimentary pieces. The same goes for Andres Nocioni, Joakim Noah, Joe Smith, Tyrus Thomas, Drew Gooden, and even Luol Deng. None of them is a go-to guy.
John Paxson does not want to give up on this team he put together. On paper, there is a lot of talent there. Is Rose a transcendent enough talent to raise the others' play to a high enough level? Perhaps, but Rose needs some time to get to that level, if he ever will.
Beasley's scoring ability will open things up for the entire Bulls offense. He creates mismatch problems with his inside-outside scoring ability. With Beasley being the primary scorer, Deng will be freer to take the jump to a star, and when Gordon is on the floor, that lineup is instant offense.
The Bulls were a middle-of-the-road defensive team last year. Beasley probably wouldn't help that too much. The offense was the bigger problem last year, and it is quicker to fix.
The Bulls still will need to figure out what to do with so many role players, but with Hinrich, Sefolosha, and Hughes on the wing and Noah inside, the Bulls have a lot of room for improvement there.
By taking Derrick Rose, the Bulls will be banking that he is the next Chris Paul. But the Hornets are put together extremely well, with Tyson Chandler and David West inside, and Paul has much more scoring ability than Rose.
Rose may be the hometown kid, and off the court, he offers more than Beasley does. But the game is won on the court, and just ask Rose. He will tell you that Beasley is "way better than me."
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3 months ago
I'm right with you on this Mackenzie!
3 months ago
Beasley reminds me of Sam Perkins. The Bulls are going to be a top 3 seed in the East next year.
3 months ago
Great article, and I half agree with it. I am almost glad Minnesota didn't get the first pick. I am very jealous of that second pick, though.
Is the 2nd pick easier than 2007's 2nd overall pick?
3 months ago
I think Mayo is better than either Horford or Conley, so I would say last year was easier.
3 months ago
beasley is great and they should probably take him. Hinrich is a serviceable point guard in this league. Drew Gooden and Joakim Noah aren't.
But they won't. Rose will go number one and he will be very good, but he won't be good immediately. He certainly is not the next Chris Paul. He has his potential, but he won't be ready day one liek Paul was and I don't see him panning out like I see Paul doing over the course of his career
3 months ago
I agree with Nikil. The Bulls will take Rose because point guards have been become much more important recently and because he is a local kid. Then, they will try to package Hinrich and someone else for a low post scorer. They should be a definite playoff team next year, especially in the weak east.
3 months ago
"On paper, there is a lot of talent there. Is Rose a transcendent enough talent to raise the others' play to a high enough level? Perhaps, but Rose needs some time to get to that level, if he ever will."
That is a ridiculous statement!
Rose will make the Bulls better and have a bigger impact on the team than Beasley. Kirk is a good PG but Rose will be better, hands down. And he can be the go to player that you speak about. Beasley won't be as effective in the NBA as he was at K-State. Everybody is 2x bigger and stronger. Beasley will be ready in about 3 years, Rose is ready now.
from 3 months ago
I agree Rose is an upgrade over Hinrich. No doubt about that if Rose comes anywhere near the hype. But Hinrich was a good point guard. He had a bad year last year, but before that, he was a good player.
The Bulls have no one who can do what Beasley does.
from 3 months ago
Take off your Rose colored glasses for a second and read these stats then go over to your tivo and watch the national title game you'll see that Rose misses key free throws at the end of the game along with the rest of his teammates. Also Beasley will be better in the nba because he will have help Rose had studs around him came up a game short Brandon Jennings a soon to be freshman will make you all forget about the most overrated player in this years draft Derrick Rose.
Rosr
MIN PTS REB AST TO A/T STL BLK PF FG% FT% 3P% PPS 29.2 14.9 4.5 4.7 2.7 1.77 1.2 .4 1.7 .477 .712 .337 1.37
Beasley
SEASON MIN PTS REB AST TO A/T STL BLK FT% 3P%
2007-2008 31.5 26.2 12.4 1.2 2.9 .40 1.3 1.6 .774 .379
Notice Beasleys FT% and also his 3p% they are better then roses which means yo boi has no mid-range jumpshot. Now one last thing watch film of beasleys skills around the basket I can promise you he will draw the most traditional three-point plays in the nba as a rookie.
from 3 months ago
People get too hyped on Rose. Don't forget, in his high school state finals one year, he scored two points and his team lost...that was in high school, playing against other high schoolers. What kind of a go to guy does that make him?...alright, i like the kid. But, he is no chris paul. Paul was able to drop 62 in highschool. Check out the youtube video if you don't believe me..Also, watching him play against ucla in the tourney, i saw that kid westbrook locked him up.. I would even argue, the real star for memphis was chris douglas roberts. He is a great unselfish player, a lot of people are sleeping on..A team like the Cavs would be lucky to have him play alongside Lebron James. Sorry though, to get off topic..Anyway, i think Rose has a lot of potential. However, I don't see him on an Iverson level, and it's hard for me to believe he is worthy of a #1 overall selection. That said, I hope he does great in the NBA. And I know he's gonna have lots of years to prove me wrong.
3 months ago
Lack of consistent jumpshot?
I'll take Beasley shooting over Rose any day, hell, the kid can shoot right-handed better than Rose.
3 months ago
Rose is a big hype machine. He'll be fine in the NBA, but Beasley will be excellent if not an all time great. Watching the Bulls last year was painful because they relied so heavily on inconsistent scorers like Gordon, Deng, Hinrich, and Nocioni. But Beasley will take over that role and free up there whole offense, he'll make everyones job easier and in combination with Wallace they should be killing the boards. The bulls are taking Rose though, make no mistake about it. Rose might be good enough that they don't regret it, but neither did the Rockets for taking Olajuwon over Jordan
3 months ago
why del negro nobody say nothing about the best fitted coach for theBulls guess who?........scottie pippen he is a player coach throughout his career please give him a chance to prouve himself has who he is. best best best ever paxon try him even has an assistent coach you won't regret it thank you ftanise. bulls fan forever
3 months ago
Great discussion here so far.
3 months ago
If the Bulls draft based on need, Michael Beasley is the pick. He's that big scoring guy that they have lacked since they traded Elton Brand. The Bulls were last in shooting percentage last year, Derek Rose won't help that for he'll be passing to the same bad shooters from last year. However, Beasley can make his own shot or even rebound from a miss and put it back in. Still the Bulls need to give who ever is the draft pick a little help, though with Beasley it wouldn't have to be the dramatic rebuilding effort that Rose would need.
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