Kenpom Says Georgetown Hoyas are Okay. Maryland Terps, Not So Much

Jarrett CarterAnalyst IDecember 16, 2009

ANAHEIM, CA - DECEMBER 12:  Jason Clark #21 of the Georgetown Hoyas shoots against Justin Holiday #22 and Scott Suggs #15 of the Washington Huskies in the John Wooden Classic on December 12, 2009 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. Georgetown won 74-66. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/ Getty Images)
Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

Kenpom is a fancy pythagorean-calculative program that projects the wins for college basketball teams .

Independent of sweaty blazers, argumentative guards, and failed Princeton offenses, it uses stats and trends to measure what a team is likely to do with the rest of its season, and spits out a magic record.

And Kenpom likes the chances for the Georgetown Hoyas . The undefeated Hoyas will only see trouble against Syracuse, Duke, Villanova, and West Virginia, amounting to a 22-7 overall record and a 12-6 finish in the Big East.

Should Austin Freeman continue his outside shooting proficiency, Hollis Thompson emerge as the Hoyas’ best perimeter defender, and Greg Monroe improve on the great start to the season, that may be a glass ceiling waiting to be shattered.

But Kenpom has very little love for the Maryland Terrapins . The program has placed the Terps at a marginal 18-12, and a mediocre 8-8 in the ACC; about a game shy of making the NCAA tournament.

At first sight, it’s enough to rile up the inner Terrapin apologist within you. Good size, decent defense, and offensive balance are the hallmarks of this year’s team, and with the emergence of Sean Moseley as the team’s most consistent offensive and defensive player, Greivis Vasquez can be more of a laid-back assassin than a chest-thumping gunner of undermanned seasons past.

But you can realistically see both outcomes for these teams. Georgetown was way down last year, and the Terps came on late. But relative to these results, we’ve seen both kinds of teams end up at these conclusions in recent years.

The Hoyas and the Terps are capable of playing well above or well below these projections. And that may be the scariest formula you could cook up for both squads:

At this point, you just can’t do the math on either program.

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