Too Much CONCACAF? How About Too Much CONMEBOL and CAF...

I came across an older article, "Message to FIFA : Too Much CONCACAF in World Cup" , and decided to give my thoughts on the topic. Though I agree that FIFA needs to rethink the allocation of bids for future World Cups, I disagree with the article's position that CONCACAF and AFC should have their direct bids reduced.  

Some modifications could be made in order to increase the number of direct bids for UEFA and address the legitimate concern that it is underrepresented at the World Cup, to the detriment of the tournament.

(In italics are direct quotes from the article):

"As the pool for next year's championship is slowly completed, a few harsh truths about FIFA's current means for distributing spots to the different confederations are being realized. From a quality standpoint, it is obvious that an ocean of talent separates certain confederations from others. The most telling statistic for this argument is quite simply the fact that no country outside of Europe or South America has ever won the FIFA World Cup."

It is not that telling. Not every team out of UEFA or CONMEBOL is or has been a threat to win the World Cup. Only four nations of UEFA (Italy, Germany, England, and France) and three nations out of CONMEBOL (Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay) are winners of those 18 World Cups.  

You can throw the Dutch into the mix of UEFA elite teams, as they were unlucky to have played and lost two consecutive World Cups finals against the host nation. 

On the other hand, Spain nor Portugal have done anything special at the World Cup, each with exactly one appearance in the semifinals...same as the United States and South Korea.

Nobody will argue the fact that UEFA is the strongest confederation top to bottom, and thus their 13 direct bids is a bit lower than it should be.  

CONMEBOL is a different story.

Taking into account the fact that CONMEBOL has only ten members, is top heavy with Argentina and Brazil, has a former world power that is only a very thin shell of its former self in Uruguay, and the general performance of CONMEBOL teams (other than Argentina and Brazil) in recent World Cups, I would think four direct qualification spots is being more than generous.

I see no reason for CONMEBOL to have been allowed to play for a fifth spot for 2010. Outside of Argentina and Brazil, I can only think of Paraguay in recent memory (the last three World Cups) that has consistently played well. CONMEBOL will, as usual, count on Argentina and Brazil to advance out of the 2010 group stages while at most one of the other three might join them.

"In North America, a whopping 3.5 spots were doled out to CONCACAF for the current qualifying process, a process that enters its final round with only six contestants. That's right, in order to completely kill your chance of attending a World Cup in North America, you have to finish fifth...out of six. At the most, CONCACAF should have two direct qualification spots."  

The suggestion of two direct qualification spots for CONCACAF is draconian.  

You have to balance the desire for a high quality competition with the desire for equitable (not equal) distribution of spots to the various confederations. I would think three spots for CONCACAF, taking into account two respectable soccer nations in the United States and Mexico, along with the fact that CONCACAF has 38 other members, is not too much to ask for.

"FIFA should also be mindful of the way the UEFA qualifying groups are handled, and award a certain amount of spots to specific groups."

Why should FIFA be mindful? The qualification process is an internal confederation matter and is completely irrelevant to the discussion of how many bids each confederation should receive. It is UEFA's choice how it has organized its qualification process. The same is true for CONCACAF. If CONCACAF wants its qualification process to culminate into a final group of six teams with the top three qualifying, so be it.

However, I would not have allowed CONMEBOL and CONCACAF to have had the inter-confederation playoff for an additional spot, and instead would have given that to UEFA as a direct spot, thus increasing their allotment from 13 to 14.

"As of now, that match is shaping up to be any combination of Uruguay, Argentina, Ecuador, or Venezuela against Honduras or Costa Rica. Which brings me to my next point: Would you rather see Argentina in the World Cup, or Honduras? Uruguay, or Costa Rica? Bahrain, New Zealand, or Portugal?"

Just because a world power like Argentina struggled during the qualification process is no reason to put the blame on FIFA's allocation of bids to CONCACAF and AFC. Maybe Argentina took qualifications lightly, knowing that CONMEBOL had four bids plus a playoff opportunity for a fifth.  

If Argentina had failed to qualify, then the blame would have rightfully been on them, not on FIFA, because CONMEBOL has only ten nations, yet were competing for a "whopping" 4.5 bids.

"The World Cup should be about pitting the best against the best on the grandest scale of all."

How do you determine the "best against the best"? The World Cup is not literally about the top 32 teams and it would be very difficult to determine them. Even if you could determine that New Zealand is not one of the top 32 teams—as a fan I certainly look forward to seeing what they can do on the pitch.

Also, why just target the reduction of direct bids towards CONCACAF and AFC?  What have the CAF nations done with their five direct spots? In 2002 and 2006, only one of the five CAF nations advanced out of the group stage for those World Cups...Senegal in 2002 and Ghana in 2006. I think four direct spots for CAF is fair and that fifth spot could be taken away from them and given to UEFA, raising their total to 15.

There is one more bid that could be reallocated. The 2010 World Cup had a playoff between Oceania winner New Zealand and fifth place AFC member Bharain.  

I would propose that New Zealand follow Australia and join the AFC.  New Zealand would be competitive and have a good shot at winning one of the four direct spots allocated to the AFC.  

Then, I would take that playoff spot and allow the fourth place team out of CONCACAF, fifth place team out of CAF, fifth place team out of AFC, and winner of Oceania (regardless of whether New Zealand remains or decides to join AFC) to compete in a four team single elimination playoff to be held at some neutral venue in Europe.

The summary of bids under my proposal (32) would be as follows:

UEFA: 15 direct

CAF: 4 direct

AFC: 4 direct

CONCACAF: 3 direct

CONMEBOL: 4 direct

Host Nation:  1 automatic

CAF, AFC, CONCACAF, and Oceania: 1 from a 4 team playoff