Capps’ agent Paul Kinsler said that the Nationals are on a list of six or seven teams that Capps is very interested in. In a few days, he will narrow it down to three teams, and Kinsler said the Nationals will almost certainly be on that list too.
The reason is simple: Matt Capps still wants to be a closer, and the Nationals are one of a handful of teams that would use him in that capacity.
However, after three solid years as the Pirates closer, he had an off year in 2009 and some teams may shy away from giving him the money he wants after posting a 5.80 ERA.
But let’s take a closer look at his numbers and see what that inflated ERA means. Here are his average yearly stats from 2006-2008:
Hits per-nine: 8.1
Walks per-nine: 1.4
Strikeouts per-nine: 6.7
Batting average-against: .241
On base percentage-against: .373
Slugging average-against: .351
Saves/opportunities: 40/57 (70%)
Inherited runs allowed to score: 37%
From top to bottom, that is a solid closer’s resume, especially the walks (1.4 per nine).
Now let’s take a look at his 2009 numbers, which may surprise you. I’ve italicized the stats you might find interesting:
Hits per-nine: 12.1
Walks per-nine: 2.8
Strikeouts per-nine: 7.6
Batting average-against: .324
On base percent-against: .373
Slugging percent-against: .533
Saves/opportunities: 27/32 (80%)
Inherited runs allowed to score: 57%
It doesn’t take long to see what caused the problems for Capps in 2009. He allowed four more hits per-nine innings, which caused his inherited runners allowed to jump a full 20 percent.
He came into the game, he gave up a couple of extra hits, and those inherited runners scored.
That said, his save percentage jumped from 70 to 80 percent.
So he gave up more hits, and he allowed more runners to score in 2009. What was different last year for Matt Capps?
His right elbow.
He missed nine games due to elbow problems and was listed as day-to-day for several weeks. If his elbow is sound—and all reports are that it is—then Capps would be the Nationals’ closer in 2010 if they can sign him.
For comparison purposes, former Nationals’ Chad Cordero had a career save percentage of 84 percent (basically, Capps blew five more games over three years than did Cordero). He walked 1.5 more batters per-nine innings but also struck out two more batters per-nine.
Capps, just 26, was a seventh-round pick by the Pirates in 2002 as a Georgia high schooler. He arrived in Pittsburgh just three years later and at age 21 became the team’s setup man. He moved into the closer’s rose in 2007 and saved 67 games in three years.
Capps has a fastball that consistently hits 95 mph with movement. He has a great mound presence and terrific command of his pitches. He relies on his fastball because his secondary pitches aren’t nearly as good.
If the Nationals can sign Capps, they will have a closer just as good as Cordero was. And wouldn’t that be nice. The going rate for his services, says Bruce Levine of ESPN.com, would be about $3-$4 million. Capps wants a multi-year contract.
But, c’mon, his middle name is “Dicus.” I don’t even want to know how you pronounce that.
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