#7 OREGON (-10.0) 33 #13 Oregon St. 26
There has never been a bigger Civil War game played than this year's edition, as the winner of this rivalry game goes to the Rose Bowl as Pac-10 Champion. Oregon has been the best team in the league all season and they are a better team than Oregon State, but the technical analysis is strongly in favor of the Beavers in this game.
My math model favors Oregon by 13 points in this game, but the Ducks apply to a negative 10-50-2 ATS situation and a negative 18-64 ATS situation that is not related to the first situation (only one game has applied to both, a Loss). Oregon State, meanwhile, applies to a 99-41-1 ATS last game revenge situation. As is always the case with a Mike Riley coached team, the Beavers are a better team now than they were early in the season and the Beavers are now 42-17 ATS from game 5 on since Riley returned to coach them for his second stint in Corvallis, including 6-1 ATS this season.
Oregon is also better now than they were early in the season and I ran my math model from week 5 on and it favors Oregon by 11 points in this game, which is what I'll consider to be the true line. The situations are certainly strong enough to favor Oregon State plus the points in this rivalry game for the Pac-10 crown, but I like the Ducks to win.
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