Free NFL Picks: Week 12
Every Thanksgiving we gather together with our families, eat tons of turkey, pretend we are thankful for something, watch our crazy uncle get hammered, and watch the Detroit Lions get obliterated.
Generally, none of us would watch the Lions play, even if you paid us. But slap that terrible product on the tube at 12:30 in the middle of the week and we are all over it.
Schedule the Lions for Monday Night Football and we're watching Dancing With the Stars, helping the wife clean the house, staying at the office extra late, or performing some other arduous task.
On Thanksgiving it's a different story, we tune in each year and ask ourselves, "How bad are the Lions?"
By the end of the first quarter our drunken uncle says, "The Lions aren't all that bad. I got 'em plus the points. Watch 'em win the game."
Suddenly, the Lions are down by 20 going into the half, your uncle is halfway through a case, and you're wondering how much money he lost.
The NFL recognized the brutality known as the Lions, so they tossed us an additional game to keep the drinking going, the money flowing, and a reminder that if it weren't for gambling, none of us would watch.
I am not going to shy away from the tantalizing three pack of treats trotted out to us on Turkey day.
Fresh off a 3-2 week that saw my record soar to the incredible average heights of 33-30, I am going to sweep the board this week.
And when I don't win, I will drink away my losses as my uncle tells me how much Christmas money he flushed down the drain.
Detroit-Green Bay (Lions +10)
Maybe I’m the drunken uncle who always takes the Lions. But hear me out on this one, because right now I am sober.
The line maker knows everyone is going to bet against the Lions because we all have the same perception about this team on Thanksgiving—they stink.
To compensate for this, the man out in Vegas inflated the line and gives yours truly some great value.
The Lions are only 10-9 ATS on Thanksgiving since 1992 while the Packers are only 2-6 ATS on Thursday games.
I also love the fact that the public is all over the Packers.
Green Bay 30, Detroit 24
Dallas-Oakland (Cowboys -13.5)
The Raiders shocked the world for the second time this season as they upended the Cincinnati Bengals.
Their previous upset came against the Eagles over a month ago.
And do you know what happened to the Raiders after they beat Andy Reid and company?
They welcomed the New York Jets into town and got tuned up 38-0.
This time around they have to go to Dallas who is desperate to get the offense going. The public is split with this game so the fade is not in effect here.
Dallas 48, Oakland 10
Denver-New York Giants (Broncos +6.5)
The public is all over New York in this spot and once again I will fade away.
New York is in a tough spot here. They just played an overtime game, must travel out to Denver (who was embarrassed last week), and try not to look ahead to Dallas next week.
There are people who will point out that I picked Dallas even thought they are in a trap game.
True. But not entirely.
The Cowboys need to get the offense going so they can't take anyone lightly. They also get a team that is coming off an emotional win and will probably roll over like a dog. And the Cowboys are at home.
Lets recap why I don't like they Giants in this spot. They are traveling on a short week following an overtime game, playing against a team coming off an embarrassing loss, and they may be caught looking ahead to a key divisional game next week.
And if you don't think New York can lose on the road, then let me remind you of the epic loss at Cleveland last year.
Denver 20, New York 13
Houston-Indianapolis (Texans +3.5)
Let me get this straight—the Colts are 10-0, the Texans are 5-5, Houston is 1-14 all-time against Indianapolis, and the line is only 3.5?
When lines don't make sense and the public is all over the obvious side, you jump the other way.
I wish I could give you stats to reinforce this pick, but I can't.
Houston 30, Indianapolis 28
St. Louis-Seattle (Rams +3)
The Seahawks have no business laying points on the road to anyone. This pick reminds me of Atlanta laying points on the road to Carolina.
Atlanta showed how awful they are on the road and let a bad Carolina team get the best of them.
I see the same thing happening here.
And guess who the public likes?
St. Louis 30, Seattle 24
Cincinnati-Cleveland (Bengals -14.5)
May someone please have mercy on Cleveland.
Cincinnati 46, Cleveland 13
New England-New Orleans (Patriots +3)
The Patriots were rolling the Colts two weeks ago and uncharacteristically let it slip away.
I see a ton of similarities between the Colts and Saints, which is why I expect the game to start in a similar manner. The only difference will be that the Pats will bury the Saints once they have them down.
New England 47, New Orleans 27
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