IDP Wednesday: Week 12
By: Justin Curry (11/25/2009)
***Quick Note Before We Begin - This week, the Fantasy Football Librarian is having her First Annual FFLibrarian Readers' Choice poll. One of the questions asks what your favorite IDP resource is. If you like my articles each week, I would appreciate it immensely if you would take the poll and vote for my site - Numbers and Guts. I'm going up against some real big dogs in the industry, so I need all the help I can get. The poll is really quick as it only takes about two minutes to complete. Any help is truly appreciated. The poll can be taken by clicking here.
So, with that being said, lets get back to some IDP!!!
IDP Wednesday is dedicated to the stepchildren of the Fantasy Football world - The Individual Defensive Players. It's broken up into the following six parts:
1. Bye-Week Fillers - This section is dedicated to the players who may not be great, but should have a solid, if not spectacular week because of the situation they're in this week.
2. Go and Get 'Em - This section is dedicated to players you should think about for the rest of the way.
3. The Favorable & Formidable Fives - This section lists the five best and worst teams allowing points to the DL, LB and DB positions this year.
4. IDP Opportunity - The average NFL game has 126 plays (average for one team is 63 offensive plays and 63 defensive plays). This section illustrates the top and bottom five teams that are above and below that average for both offense and defense showing you which IDP players are getting more opportunities to pad their stats.
5. Playoff Considerations - This section is devoted to what you need to be thinking about with the playoffs coming up.
6. IDP Injury Considerations - This section is devoted to who's out and who you should get as a replacement.
Hope you enjoy and please keep in mind that for the purposes of this article, I am excluding the top 20 linebackers, top 15 defensive backs and top 10 defensive linemen as I'm assuming that they are already on someone's team.
Bye-Week Fillers (Good for This Week)
Thus far this year, if you take out the bye-week recommendations that were benched after my original Wednesday posting (3 players) and players that were injured in the first half and didn't return (2 players), here are my averages for each position so far:
Using My Preferred IDP Scoring System
Avg. Return for Bye-Week Filler Positions I've Recommended
|Position||Point Total That Week|
Week 10 Recommendations
1. Cliff Avril (Detroit Lions - DE) - The last time Avril played Green Bay, he put up his best numbers of the year with six solo tackles, one assist, and one sack. Though he's been relatively quiet lately, I think he gets a little kick this week and becomes productive again.
2. Shaun Ellis (New York Jets - DE) - Carolina comes to town and they love helping DEs pad stats. Since Ellis is the best on the Jets at that position in my opinion, I believe he will be the primary beneficiary this week.
1. Jerod Mayo (New England Patriots - ILB) - Through 11 weeks, there is no better team for an ILB to play than the New Orleans Saints. Mayo should turn an alright season into a very nice day this week and it should be close to this year's best for him.
2. Andra Davis (Denver Broncos - ILB) - The New York Giants are second to only the Saints in awarding ILBs points this year. Over the last two games, Davis has been productive and should continue this trend.
3. DeMeco Ryans (Houston Texans - MLB) - If you have Ryans on your team and are afraid to use him because of his up and down season, thus far, this is the week you must put him in. The Colts have been good to him over his career and this week should be no different.
1. Bryan Scott (Buffalo Bills - DB/LB) - The match-up is only alright this week, but you have to ride this wave until it stops. If you have him, he's a must play every week until he proves otherwise.
2. Darcel McBath (Denver Broncos - FS) - With Brian Dawkins out because of injury this week and the pass-happy New York Giants coming to town, the stage is set for McBath to have one of those monster games that "comes out of nowhere."
3. Nick Harper (Tennessee Titans - CB) - Harper seems to have his best statistical games when he plays a team with a big name receiver. In comes Arizona who has two of them. I expect very solid numbers from Harper this week.
Go and Get 'Em (Worth Considering Over the Long Term)
Previous Recommendations I Still Like:
John Abraham/Chris Kelsay Best Match-Up, Andre Carter, Elvis Dumervil, James Hall, Anthony Hargrove, Robaire Smith, Jason Taylor, "Stylez G" White, Jimmy Wilkerson
1. David Bowens (Cleveland Browns - LB/DE) - If Bowens is eligible to be a DL in your league, you need to jump on this one right now. Over the last two weeks, Bowens is averaging six solo tackles, two assists, two sacks and has a forced fumble. Couple that with a very good fantasy playoff schedule and he could be very good the rest of the way for you.
Previous Recommendations I Still Like:
Nick Barnett, David Bowens, Keith Brooking, Keith Bulluck, Channing Crowder, Brian Cushing, Andra Davis, Justin Durant, Larry Foote, David Hawthorne, LeRoy Hill, Hunter Hillenmeyer, Thomas Howard, Kaluka Maiava, Calvin Pace, Mike Peterson, Paul Posluszney, Stephen Tulloch, Will Witherspoon
1. Michael Boley (New York Giants - OLB) - Though the remainder of his schedule this year is rather tough, you still need to consider picking him up for the rest of the way. Over the last two games, he's averaging nine solo tackles, one assist, has one sack, and has one pass deflection. To make things even better, Antonio Pierce looks like he's going to be out for awhile, so he has no one to really compete with him for tackles.
2. Kevin Burnett (San Diego Chargers - ILB) - Since returning from injury, Burnett has averaged seven solo tackles, two assists, one sack, and has one pass deflection. If you're hurting and LB, you might want to ride this until it slows down.
3. Channing Crowder (Miami Dolphins - ILB) - Over the past two weeks, Crowder is averaging seven solo tackles and has one sack. Though this week should be another slow for him, weeks 13 - 16 should be very good with him playing New England, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Houston.
Previous Recommendations I Still Like:
Jordan Babineaux, Atari Bigby, Tyvon Branch, Mike Brown, Melvin Bullitt, Erik Coleman, Thomas DeCoud, Louis Delmas, Reed Doughty, Abram Elam, Deshon Goldson, Chris Harris, LaRon Landry, Michael Lewis, Brandon McGowan, Chinedum Ndukwe, Bernard Pollard, Gerald Sensabaugh, Donte Whitner/George Wilson, Antoine Winfield
1. Bryan Scott (Buffalo Bills - DB/LB) - Couple his DB eligibility with Keith Ellison being put on I.R. late last week and Scott or Poz should finish off the year in very productive fashion. Over the last two games that he's been moved to WLB, he is averaging nine solo tackles, one assist, has one sack, one forced fumble, and one pass deflection. If he's available, get him immediately
2. Nick Harper (Tennessee Titans - CB) - Back from injury last week, Harper continued the very productive pace he was on before his injury with six solo tackles, one assist and one pass deflection. If you take out the games he's missed this year, Harper is averaging six solo tackles, two assists and about one pass deflection a game this year.
3. Antoine Winfield (Minnesota Vikings - CB) - Last chance to jump on-board this train before it leaves the station. It looks like this is the week he comes back into the lineup. Winfield is a Top 10 DB when healthy.
Favorable & Formidable Fives
As one looks at the Favorable portion below, you will notice that you want your DL players to play Green Bay and your LB and DB players to play New Orleans.
As for the Formidable portion, DLs haven't been successful against Dallas' o-line, linebackers aren't productive against Philadelphia and you already knew to stay away from Oakland with your DBs.
Favorable (Ordered w/ Best Team to Play First & Weekly Opponent)
Formidable (Ordered w/ Worst Team to Play First & Weekly Opponent)
As mentioned at the beginning of this post, these four charts are to illustrate which players are actually getting more opportunities to fill up their stat sheet just because they are on a certain team.
Offensively, what can be gained from these first two charts along with the 'Favorable & Formidable Fives' section is that you want your safeties and linebackers to go up against New England and New Orleans. If you have a DB going up against Oakland, bench him.
As far as the defensive play portion (bottom two charts), I've added a new column that shows you over the course of the year what these averages translate to. For example, the average total of defensive plays per team is 628. As you can see from the two defensive charts below, right now, Buffalo is 67 more plays ahead of that average, meaning they have had 67 more plays this year on defense than the average team in the NFL to make tackles, etc. Conversely, the New York Giants are 68 plays below the average in the NFL for total number of defensive plays, meaning they have had 68 fewer opportunities to make tackles, etc. Through ten games for every NFL team, the difference between the total number of defensive plays for Buffalo and the total number of defensive plays for the New York Giants is 135 total defensive plays. This total is equivalent to more than two extra games for the average NFL defensive player.
Most Amount of Offensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.8)
|New York Giants||66.6||33.8||31.2|
Least Amount of Offensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.8)
Most Amount of Defensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.8, Average Total Defensive Plays for the Season is 627.78)
|Team||Plays||Total Above Average||Pass||Rush|
Least Amount of Defensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.8, Average Total Defensive Plays for the Season is 627.78)
|Team||Plays||Total Below Average||Pass||Rush|
|New York Giants||56.0||-68||29.7||24.1|
If you're at a point where you're wondering what the SoS (Strength of Schedule) is like for the IDPers on your squad, take a look at this great recommendation from the Fantasy Football Librarian :
FFToolbox.com's SoS Application
Not quite sure the methodology behind it and would like to see it broken out into DE, ILB, OLB, SS, FS & CB, but I have a feeling those will be coming in the future. With that said, seriously, is there a better SoS fantasy football tool on the web?! If there is, I haven't found it yet.
After doing my own analysis for weeks 14 through 16, weighing week 14 slightly more than 15, and week 15 slightly more than 16, here is my SoS for the fantasy playoffs this year:
Most Favorable SoS (Weeks 14 - 16)
Least Favorable SoS (Weeks 14 - 16)
IDP Injury Considerations
|Richard Seymour||DL||Might Return This Week||Elsewhere|
|Terrell Suggs||DL||Out Indefinitely||Jarrett Johnson|
|Antwan Odom||DL||Out Rest of Season||Michael Johnson|
|Kris Jenkins||DL||Out Rest of Season||Elsewhere|
|Lawrence Timmons||LB||Returned Last Week|
|Justin Durant||LB||Should Return This Week|
|Keith Rivers||LB||Might Return This Week||Dehani Jones|
|David Thornton||LB||Might Return This Week||Elsewhere|
|Ernie Sims||LB||Out Indefinitely||DeAndre Levy|
|Landon Johnson||LB||Out Indefinitely||James Anderson|
|Akeem Jordan||LB||Out Indefinitely||Will Witherspoon|
|Brian Urlacher||LB||Out Rest of Season||Nick Roach|
|Lofa Tatupu||LB||Out Rest of Season||David Hawthorne|
|D'Qwell Jackson||LB||Out Rest of Season||Kaluka Maiava|
|Omar Gaither||LB||Out Rest of Season||Will Witherspoon|
|Pisa Tinoisama||LB||Out Rest of Season||Nick Roach|
|Eric Barton||LB||Out Rest of Season||David Veikune|
|Thomas Davis||LB||Out Rest of Season||Landon Johnson|
|Antonio Pierce||LB||Out Rest of Season||Michael Boley|
|Keith Ellison||LB||Out Rest of Season||Bryan Scott|
|Donte Whitner||DB||Returned Last Week|
|Nick Harper||DB||Returned Last Week|
|Michael Lewis||DB||Returned Last Week|
|Al Afalava||DB||Returned Last Week|
|Antoine Winfield||DB||Should Return This Week|
|Jairus Byrd||DB||Should Return This Week|
|Troy Polamalu||DB||Out Until Week 13-15||Tyrone Carter|
||DB||Out Until Week 13-15||Marvin White|
|Nate Clements||DB||Out Until Week 14-16||Dashon Goldson|
|Brian Dawkins||DB||Out Indefinitely||Darcel McBath|
|Tracy Porter||DB||Out Indefinitely||Darren Sharper|
||DB||Out Rest of Season
|Jermaine Phillips||DB||Out Rest of Season||Sabby Piscitelli|
|Daniel Bullocks||DB||Out Rest of Season||Louis Delmas|
|Kenny Phillips||DB||Out Rest of Season||C.C. Brown|
|Will Allen||DB||Out Rest of Season||Elsewhere|
|Jarrad Page||DB||Out Rest of Season||Mike Brown|
|Roy Williams||DB||Out Rest of Season||Chinedum Ndukwe|
|Al Harris||DB||Out Rest of Season||Tramon Williams|
Remember to Bookmark or Favorite us and check back every Wednesday around noon for new insightful posts on who to get for your IDP leagues this year. I'll be here all season to answer any of your questions and help your teams any way I can.
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