Green Bay Packers Midseason Grades, Volume II

I will now grade the defense and special teams. I would like to remind everyone of my first prediction before the start of the season: “The defense will finish the season in the top quarter of the league.”

Let me read some of the comments I got from doubters on both Sports Scribes and Bleacher Report when I made points about expecting great things from the Packers defense:

• "Packer's D won't get to the top eight this year. AFC has the better defenses. In the NFC the Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, and Carolina will keep the Packers D out of the elite."
• "I like the Packers personel (sic) with their new defense, but the Vikings and Bears are ready RIGHT NOW defensively….(The Bears) defense, regardless of a successful transition or not, is still better than Green Bay's, and I can easily say the same for Minnesota's, too. (For the record, neither are anywhere near as good—Minnesota ranks 15th and the Bears 10th.)"
• "It seems to me that the Packers are "forcing" a 3/4 defense on a 4/3 roster. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out, but I'm still pretty convinced the Packers in 2009 would be best served to stick with a 4/3…"
• "Delusional packer fans (MJ and DT): It's all about running the ball and stopping the run. Minnesota can do both and GB can do neither. Case closed….If you were to base your pick on sound judgement (sic), you would have GB finishing third in the North (standings)."
• "On other articles I wrote, there were all sorts of comments eluding to the defense being a dumb move because our best lineman, Aaron Kampman, would be forced to play another position. Even though his coach, Kevin Greene, was successful in that transition a decade ago, that was us “trying to fit a square peg in a round hole” and was going to make the entire defense unsuccessful."

Instead, the Packers are better than the top quarter—we are in the top eight. More than that, we have balance—Green Bay is in the top 10 in nearly every category: points allowed (10th) third down percentage (third), time of possession (fifth), turnovers forced (second), total yards allowed (fourth), passing yards (sixth), yards per pass attempt (tied-ninth), rushing yards (fourth), and average per carry (third). The one shortcoming is we are ranked 20th in sacks.

Let’s analyze how each unit graded in each game and what the resulting mid-term grade is:

Defensive Line: B… A+, C-, C+, A-, C+, A-, B+, B-, and B average a high B.

The line is much better than it was last season. The Packers have faced top-six backs in Cedric Benson, Stephen Jackson, and Adrian Peterson twice, and still are dominating the running game primarily because of the play of the line.

Statistics are not the measure of a defensive line in a 3-4 since their role is to occupy blockers. But the line has generated 64 tackles and 25 assists, plus 3.5 sacks, seven passes defended, two interceptions, three fumbles forced, and two recovered.

Cullen Jenkins leads the way with every sack and fumbles forced, two passes defended and one pick. Johnny Jolly has both fumble recoveries, five defended passes, and one interception. They also account for 33 of the tackles and 15 of the assisted tackles.

Linebackers: C …B+, D, C, C-, B, B+, F, F, and A- average a high C.

Here the play has been inconsistent—much as predicted by myself and the Packers doubters—with two F’s and a D but also an A and two B+ scores.

There have been times the backs and tight ends gashed the Pack and times when they were held in check. Other than the Cowboys game, the lack of sacks can be attributed as much to a lack of blitzing (supposedly the cornerstone of a 3-4 defense) as poor linebacker play.

Kampman has clearly not made the adjustment (going from being a Pro Bowl player to an only above average linebacker), but there is still no doubt the new defense is a success for his new unit as well as his old one.

This unit has 184 tackles and 60 assists to go with 11.5 sacks, three fumbles forced, four recoveries, and one touchdown.

Clay Matthews leads the team in sacks (four) and fumble recoveries (three), also getting the only touchdown and a forced fumble. Nick Barnett has three sacks and leads the team with 49 tackles; he is tied for second with Brandon Chillar and A.J. Hawk with 10 assists, behind only Kampman’s 12. Kampman also has 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble, Hawk 36 tackles and a sack, and Chillar 26 tackles and a forced fumble.

Defensive Backs: B …B-, B+, B, C+, A+, B+, B-, D+, and A average a high B.

It might seem a low grade given the dominance of this unit, but remember they have faced the Lions, Rams, Browns, and a rookie Buccaneers quarterback.

They also contributed to giving up a high completion percentage and fair number of yards and scores to the Old Guy.

However, the unit has been the team’s best overall, with 143 tackles, 27 assists, three sacks, 36 passes defended, 11 interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), three fumbles forced and two recovered.

They have shut up the detractors who kept saying how old the corners were or how they would not adjust to playing zone instead of bump-and-run.

Not surprisingly, defensive player of the year candidate Charles Woodson (“old” at 32) leads the unit in all but one category—assists (Nick Collins has seven). Woody has 41 tackles, three assists, one sack, 11 passes defended, three forced fumbles, and five picks including one returned for a score. However, the rest of the backfield has gaudy stats, too.

Collins has 22 tackles, one sack, eight passes defended, two picks and a fumble recovery. Al Harris has 28 tackles, including five assists, and a sack to go with five passes defended, two picks, and a fumble recovery.

Tramon Williams has 18 tackles, two assists, eight passes defended, and a pick, and Atari Bigby has 15 tackles, six assists, four passes defended and a pick.

Special Teams: C- …B, F, D+, C-, A, D, D, F, and C+ average exactly a C-.

We are dead last in the league in punting net average, 27th in kickoff net average, 24th in field goal percentage, tied for 17th in kick return average, and 23rd in punt return average. The Packers are one of four teams to have a punt blocked.

Given these rankings, a grade of C- seems too high. However, four of Crosby’s five misses have been from over 50 yards and the other was in the 40-49 yard range, where he is still 80 percent. Crosby did miss an extra point, but has still done a fine job kicking.

They also have faced some pretty good special teams units in the Bears, Browns, Bengals, Cowboys, and Vikings (what a difference a year and the addition of Percy Harvin makes) twice. It also does not help that the Packers top returners have spent time injured, including Will Blackmon missing most of the season, but their replacements still have to perform.

Thus, the Packers composite GPA is a 2.22—four B’s, three C’s, and two D’s. That is five-ninths the possible grade, which appropriately spells a 5-4 record.

Prospects for the future range from 11-5 to 8-8—I rate the team’s chances for the remaining games as follows:

• 11/22: 60 percent at home against the Niners
• 11/26: 95 percent against the Lions
• 12/7: 50 percent because the Packers have three extra days to prepare for the Ravens at home
• 12/13: 55 percent because the Bears may be realistically out of the playoff picture already
• 12/20: 5 percent against the Steelers pass rush
• 12/27: 90 percent—Seattle is underachieving and that makes them dangerous, but we have owned them and they will be playing only for pride
• 1/3: 40 percent only because the Cardinals may have nothing to play for by then, but their pass rush and offense makes them tough

This adds up to almost exactly four more wins, or nine for the season. That will not be good enough to beat out the Falcons and whoever finishes in second place in the NFC East.