Philadelphia (-3.0) 25 CHICAGO 24
Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler has thrown a league leading 17 interceptions so far this season, but he's only thrown 2 picks in 4 home games and it's highly unlikely that he'll continue to throw interceptions at the rate he's been throwing them. Cutler's career interception percentage of 3.5% is high, but it's less than the 5.0% rate of interceptions this season and I expect Cutler to throw picks at his career rate going forward - with even fewer interceptions at home (his career interception percentage in home games is just 2.7%).
If Cutler doesn't turn the ball over more than once then the Bears would have a pretty good chance to cover the spread, as Cutler should find some open receivers against a banged up Eagles' secondary that is without nickel back Joselio Hanson, 4th CB Ellis Hobbs and most likely without starter Sheldon Brown, who has been downgraded to doubtful with a hamstring injury.
Without a solid #3 corner the Eagles gave up some big plays to secondary receivers last week against San Diego while Brown and Asante Samuel took care of top target Vincent Jackson, who had just 1 catch. Samuel will be able to contain one receiver, but the Bears have 3 wide receivers with 30 or more catches and two of them will be open a lot this week. I'd rate the Eagles' secondary at 0.5 yards per pass play worse than average with 3 of the top 4 cornerbacks out, so Cutler should post big numbers.
The Eagles should also move the ball well against a sub-par Bears' defense and my math model projects 367 yards at 6.0 yppl for Philly and 364 yards at 5.8 yppl for Chicago after adjusting for the Eagles' issues in the secondary. The math prediction is still philly by 1 1/2 points, but Chicago applies to a 56-13-3 ATS contrary indicator that is based on their high turnover rate. I like the Bears plus the points at home, where Cutler is a lot better.
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