Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For JETS (10.5) @ PATRIOTS

Robert StollCorrespondent INovember 20, 2009

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - SEPTEMBER 03:  The New York Jets cheerleaders perform during the game against the Philadelphia Eagles on September 3, 2009 at Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Jets defeated the Eagles 38-27.  (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) 24 NY Jets 20

Over/Under Total: 45.0
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-22

The Jets have been struggling lately, with last week's final seconds upset loss to Jacksonville giving them their 5th loss in 6 games. However, I expect New York to play very well today, as teams that lose straight up as a favorite of more than 6 points are 138-80-8 ATS as an underdog in their next game, including 3 upset wins the last 3 weeks with Green Bay over Dallas last week, Arizona over Chicago in week 9, and Carolina upsetting Arizona in week 8.

New York applies to a 110-41-6 ATS subset of that angle and the Jets also apply to a very strong 106-37-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 47-22 ATS since I discovered it 6 years ago. My math model favors the Patriots by 10 points, so the line is fair, but there is one thing that is keeping me from making the Jets a Best Bet here - the Patriots loss to Indy last week.

New England is 19-3 ATS after a loss and that still scares me a bit even though the record is a modest 4-3 ATS for the Pats when favored by more than 6 points after a loss. I'll consider New York a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.

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