NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) 24 NY Jets 20
The Jets have been struggling lately, with last week's final seconds upset loss to Jacksonville giving them their 5th loss in 6 games. However, I expect New York to play very well today, as teams that lose straight up as a favorite of more than 6 points are 138-80-8 ATS as an underdog in their next game, including 3 upset wins the last 3 weeks with Green Bay over Dallas last week, Arizona over Chicago in week 9, and Carolina upsetting Arizona in week 8.
New York applies to a 110-41-6 ATS subset of that angle and the Jets also apply to a very strong 106-37-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 47-22 ATS since I discovered it 6 years ago. My math model favors the Patriots by 10 points, so the line is fair, but there is one thing that is keeping me from making the Jets a Best Bet here - the Patriots loss to Indy last week.
New England is 19-3 ATS after a loss and that still scares me a bit even though the record is a modest 4-3 ATS for the Pats when favored by more than 6 points after a loss. I'll consider New York a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.
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