Despite Loss to Colts, Patriots Stay Third in NFL Power Poll

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Despite losing to Indianapolis on Sunday night, the Patriots held on to the No. 3 spot in my weekly Power Poll. The Saints and Colts remain No. 1 and 2, but the Colts are quickly narrowing the gap.

This Power Poll combines three statistics. The first is a team's adjusted win-loss record, which is computed by adding the number of wins of each opponent a team has beaten and the number of losses of each opponent that a team has lost to. To achieve the adjusted winning percentage, I divide the number of wins by the numbers of wins plus losses.

For instance, the seven teams Cincinnati has beaten have combined to win 30 games, while the two teams they have lost to have combined to lose seven games, giving them an adjusted win-loss record of 30-7, which equates to a winning percentage of .811.

The second statistic compares a team's scoring against the average points allowed by the teams it has played. This is an attempt to measure a team's offensive efficiency.

For example, New England is averaging 28.8 points a game, while the nine teams they have played are allowing only 21.6 points per game, giving New England an offensive efficiency rating of 7.2.

The third stat compares a team's defensive points allowed versus the average points scored by the teams it has played. This measures a team's defensive effectiveness.

For example, Indianapolis is allowing only 15.8 points per game while their opponents are averaging 21.8 points a game, which gives Indy a defensive effectiveness ranking of -6.0 (negative numbers are good for the defensive ranking).

To achieve the final calculation, I multiply the adjusted winning percentage by three, then subtract a team's defensive effectiveness from its offensive efficiency, and then divide that by 10. I then add that number to the team's adjusted winning percentage number for the final ranking.

Without further ado, here are the results through Week 10 of the NFL season:

If I were a betting man...

I would go with the No. 16 Dolphins (plus three-and-a-half according to the Las Vegas Sunset Stations) over the No. 20 Panthers, the No. 9 Falcons (plus six-and-a-half) over the No. 15 Giants, the No. 30 Lions (minus three-and-a-half) over the No. 31 Browns, and the No. 19 49ers (plus six-and-a-half) over the No. 17 Packers.

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