Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For CHIEFS (+10) Vs. STEELERS

Robert StollCorrespondent INovember 20, 2009

KANSAS CITY, MO - OCTOBER 11:  A general view of the skirts of the cheerleaders of the Kansas City Chiefs during the NFL game against the Dallas Cowboys at Arrowhead Stadiumin on October 11, 2009 Kansas City, Missouri. The Cowboys defeated the Chiefs 26-20 in overtime. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Pittsburgh (-10.0) 27 KANSAS CITY 14

Over/Under Total: 40.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-22

Kansas City is better offensively since acquiring veteran WR Chris Chambers from San Diego, where he was having a horrible season (just 122 yards on 31 passes thrown to him). Chambers has accumulated 130 yards on just 9 pass attempts in 2 weeks for the Chiefs, but the improvement in the Chiefs' pass attack is most likely going to be wiped out by the 4 game suspension of top WR Dwayne Bowe.

Chambers appears to be able to fill Bowe's role as the #1 receiver, but Mark Bradley and Lance Long don't appear equipped to fill Chambers' role as the explosive #2 receiver, as Bradley and Long have combined to average just 5.5 yards per pass attempt this season (315 yards on 57 passes thrown to them). That puts the Kansas City pass attack right back where it was before they got Chambers, which isn't good. The Chiefs are a better running team without washed up Larry Johnson (2.9 ypr), as Jamaal Charles has a 5.4 ypr career average on 107 carries.

Kansas City is still horrible offensively and Pittsburgh is strong on defense, so don't expect much from the Chiefs' attack in this game. Pittsburgh's offense rates at 0.8 yppl better than average with Rashard Mendenhall as the main ball carrier and that unit should rebound from a bad game against Cincinnati with a strong effort against a poor KC stop unit that has given up 5.9 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. My math model favors Pittsburgh by 12 1/2 points after making all the personnel adjustments and I don't mind bucking the Chiefs.

 

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