NY GIANTS (-6.5) 27 Atlanta 19
The Giants are a better team from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.3 yppl better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl better than average on defense while the Falcons are +0.4 yppl on offense, after a small adjustment for being without RB Michael Turner, and 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively. The Giants also have an advantage in projected turnovers against an interception prone Matt Ryan but my math model only favors the G-Men by 5 points in this game.
I'll still lean with New York on the basis of a solid 67-31-4 ATS statistical profile indicator that plays on winning teams as home favorites of 3 points or more that run the ball for 115 yards per game or more and allow less than 170 passing yards per game.
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