By: Justin Curry (11/18/2009)
IDP Wednesday is dedicated to the stepchildren of the Fantasy Football world—The Individual Defensive Players. It's broken up into the following six parts:
1. Bye-Week Fillers—This section is dedicated to the players who may not be great, but should have a solid, if not spectacular week because of the situation they're in this week.
2. Go and Get 'Em—This section is dedicated to players you should think about for the rest of the way.
3. The Favorable & Formidable Fives—This section lists the five best and worst teams allowing points to the DL, LB, and DB positions this year.
4. IDP Opportunity—The average NFL game has 126 plays (average for one team is 63 offensive plays and 63 defensive plays). This section illustrates the top and bottom five teams that are above and below that average for both offense and defense, showing you which IDP players are getting more opportunities to pad their stats.
5. Playoff Considerations—This section is devoted to what you need to be thinking about with the playoffs coming up.
6. IDP Injury Considerations—This section is devoted to who's out and who you should get as a replacement.
Hope you enjoy and please keep in mind that for the purposes of this article, I am excluding the top 20 linebackers, top 15 defensive backs, and top 10 defensive linemen, as I'm assuming that they are already on someone's team.
Bye-Week Fillers (Good for This Week)
On to this weeks picks:
Thus far this year, if you take out the bye-week recommendations that were benched after my original Wednesday posting (three players) and players that were injured in the first half and didn't return (two players), here are my averages for each position so far:
Using My Preferred IDP Scoring System
Avg. Return for Bye-Week Filler Positions I've Recommended
|Position||Point Total That Week|
Week 10 Recommendations
1. Chris Kelsay (Buffalo Bills - DE)—Using the Abraham/Kelsay match-up play strategy, this week, week will be inserting Chris Kelsay. The Jags are usually very good to opposing DEs, and this one should be no different.
2. Justin Smith (San Francisco 49ers - DE)—This is the game Smith gets out of his three-game funk and goes off. If he can't do it against the worst offensive line in football, he never will.
1. Channing Crowder (Miami Dolphins - ILB)—Crowder came back with a vengeance last week with nine solo tackles and a sack. Miami goes to Carolina this week without Ronnie Brown. Since the Dolphins won't be able to control the clock without him, he should have another great game this week.
2. Lawrence Timmons (Pittsburgh Steelers - ILB)—The Chiefs have been surprisingly good to the LB position this year. Timmons should continue to get better and so should his numbers this week.
3. Nick Barnett (Green Bay Packers - ILB)—Barnett has continued to impress over the last seven games. Even last week against the supposed worst team for a LB to play—the Cowboys—he had six solo tackles, two assists, and two sacks. San Francisco is a much better match-up for him, so I think he continues this.
1. Tanard Jackson (Tampa Bay Buccaneers - FS)—Jackson has been rollin' lately. In comes the Saints for him to feast on.
2. Thomas DeCoud (Atlanta Falcons - FS)—DeCoud has slowed down lately. With that said, he goes to play the Giants this week and will get back on track as they are the second best team in the NFL to give points to safeties this year.
3. Chris Harris (Carolina Panthers - SS)—Harris has been relatively quiet since he's been back, but should be a very good play against a good match-up with Miami coming in.
Go and Get 'Em (Worth Considering Over the Long Term)
Previous Recommendations I Still Like:
John Abraham/Chris Kelsay Best Match-Up, Andre Carter, Elvis Dumervil, James Hall, Anthony Hargrove, Robaire Smith, Jason Taylor, "Stylez G" White, Jimmy Wilkerson
1. Robaire Smith (Cleveland Browns - DE)—Smith has averaged six solo tackles and two assists over the last three games. With Detroit coming in this weekend, that trend shouldn't change.
Previous Recommendations I Still Like:
Nick Barnett, Keith Brooking, Keith Bulluck, Brian Cushing, Andra Davis, Justin Durant, Larry Foote, David Hawthorne, LeRoy Hill, Hunter Hillenmeyer, Thomas Howard, Landon Johnson, Kaluka Maiava, Calvin Pace, Mike Peterson, Paul Posluszney, Stephen Tulloch, Will Witherspoon
1. David Bowens (Cleveland Browns - OLB)—Last week, Bowens had seven solo tackles, two assists, and two sacks. It looks like he is the one the will be benefiting from the injuries to D'Qwell Jackson and Eric Barton going forward.
2. Channing Crowder (Miami Dolphins - ILB)—As mentioned in the earlier section, Crowder had nine solo tackles and one sack. With a very favorable playoff schedule, now is the time to pick him up.
3. Nick Barnett (Green Bay Packers - ILB)—Another player mentioned earlier, Barnett has been really productive for a while now, even with bad match-ups. His numbers should continue to stay solid the rest of the way.
Previous Recommendations I Still Like:
Jordan Babineaux, Atari Bigby, Tyvon Branch, C.C. Brown, Mike Brown, Melvin Bullitt, Erik Coleman, Thomas DeCoud, Louis Delmas, Reed Doughty, Abram Elam, Deshon Goldson, Chris Harris, LaRon Landry, Michael Lewis (Injured), Brandon McGowan, Bernard Pollard, Gerald Sensabaugh, Donte Whitner (Injured), George Wilson
1. Chinedum Ndukwe (Cincinnati Bengals - SS)—With the Bengals putting Roy Williams on IR, Ndukwe should step up nicely and finish out the year with very productive numbers. In the four games he's started this year, he's averaging about six solo tackles and one assist.
2. Reed Doughty (Washington Redskins - SS)—With Chris Horton being shelved due to injury for the next couple of weeks, Doughty should be the beneficiary of some really nice IDP production until Horton comes back.
3. Antoine Winfield (Minnesota Vikings - CB)—Though I think it will be another week until he plays, Winfield should be picked up now as it's rare to find a potential Top 5 DB on the waiver wire this late in the season. Winfield should start getting healthy and really producing for you right in time for the playoffs this year, which is when you really want him.
Favorable & Formidable Fives
As one looks at the Favorable portion below, you will notice that you want your DL players to play Green Bay and your LB and DB players to play New Orleans.
As for the Formidable portion, DLs haven't been successful against Dallas' O-line, linebackers aren't productive against Philadelphia, and you already knew to stay away from Oakland with your DBs. One other note, though they haven't been represented yet in these charts below, St. Louis has been just an awful place for MLBs to play these past three games. In those contests, MLBs are only averaging three solo tackles, so be cautious if your guys play the Rams and truly think about benching them no matter who they are.
Favorable (Ordered w/ Best Team to Play First & Weekly Opponent)
Formidable (Ordered w/ Worst Team to Play First & Weekly Opponent)
As mentioned at the beginning of this post, these four charts are to illustrate which players are actually getting more opportunities to fill up their stat sheet just because they are on a certain team.
Offensively, what can be gained from these first two charts along with the 'Favorable & Formidable Fives' section is that you want your safeties and linebackers to go up against New England and New Orleans. If you have a DB going up against Oakland, bench him. If you have a linebacker going up against St. Louis, also bench him.
As far as the defensive play portion (bottom two charts), I've added a new column that shows you over the course of the year what these averages translate to. For example, the average total of defensive plays per team is 561. As you can see from the two defensive charts below, right now, Buffalo and Cleveland are 67 plays ahead of that average meaning they have had 67 more plays this year on defense than the average team in the NFL to make tackles, etc. Conversely, the New York Giants are 79 plays below the average in the NFL for number of defensive plays meaning they have had 79 fewer opportunities to make tackles, etc. Through nine games for every NFL team, the difference between the total number of defensive plays for Buffalo and the total number of defensive plays for the New York Giants is 146 total defensive plays, which is equivalent to more than two extra games for the average NFL defensive player.
Most Amount of Offensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.7)
|New York Giants||66.7||33.2||31.8|
Least Amount of Offensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.7)
Most Amount of Defensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.8, Average Total Defensive Plays for the Season is 560.75)
|Team||Plays||Total Above Average||Pass||Rush|
Least Amount of Defensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.8, Average Total Defensive Plays for the Season is 560.75)
|Team||Plays||Total Below Average||Pass||Rush|
|New York Giants||53.6||-79||27.9||23.4|
If you're at a point where you're wondering what the SOS (Strength of Schedule) is like for the IDPers on your squad, take a look at this great recommendation from the Fantasy Football Librarian :
FFToolbox.com's SOS Application
Not quite sure the methodology behind it and would like to see it broken out into DE, ILB, OLB, SS, FS, & CB, but I have a feeling those will be coming in the future. With that said, seriously, is there a better SOS fantasy football tool on the web?! If there is, I haven't found it yet.
IDP Injury Considerations
|Bryan Scott||LB||Returned Last Week|
|Lawrence Timmons||LB||Might Return This Week||James Farrior|
|Ricky Brown||LB||Might Return This Week||John Alston|
|David Thornton||LB||Out Indefinitely||Gerald McRath|
|Ernie Sims||LB||Out Indefinitely||DeAndre Levy|
|Keith Rivers||LB||Out Indefinitely||Dehani Jones|
|Brian Urlacher||LB||Out Rest of Season||Nick Roach|
|Lofa Tatupu||LB||Out Rest of Season||David Hawthorne|
|D'Qwell Jackson||LB||Out Rest of Season||Kaluka Maiava|
|Omar Gaither||LB||Out Rest of Season||Will Witherspoon|
|Pisa Tinoisama||LB||Out Rest of Season||Nick Roach|
|Eric Barton||LB||Out Rest of Season||David Veikune|
|Thomas Davis||LB||Out Rest of Season||Landon Johnson|
|Donte Whitner||DB||Should Return This Week|
|Nick Harper||DB||Might Return This Week||Elsewhere|
|Antoine Winfield||DB||Might Return This Week||Benny Sapp|
|Troy Polamalu||DB||Out Until Week 13-15||Tyrone Carter|
|Chris Horton||DB||Out Until Week 13-15||Reid Doughty|
|Nate Clements||DB||Out Until Week 14-16||Dashon Goldson|
|Tracy Porter||DB||Out Indefinitely||Darren Sharper|
|Jim Leonhard||DB||Out Indefinitely||Eric Smith|
|Michael Lewis||DB||Out Indefinitely||Deshon Goldson|
|Al Afalava||DB||Out Indefinitely||Elsewhere|
|Jermaine Phillips||DB||Out Rest of Season||Sabby Piscitelli|
|Daniel Bullocks||DB||Out Rest of Season||Louis Delmas|
|Kenny Phillips||DB||Out Rest of Season||C.C. Brown|
|Will Allen||DB||Out Rest of Season||Elsewhere|
|Jarrad Page||DB||Out Rest of Season||Mike Brown|
|Roy Williams||DB||Out Rest of Season||Chinedum Ndukwe|
|Justin Tuck||DL||Out Indefinitely||Elsewhere|
|Antwan Odom||DL||Out Rest of Season||Michael Johnson|
|Kris Jenkins||DL||Out Rest of Season||Elsewhere|
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