Dodgers' "Unclutchness" Kept Them Out of The World Series

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The Dodgers have most of what it takes to enter, or even win, the World Series. But they need to be more "clutch."

FanGraphs had them ranked first in National League teams in raw hitting ability for 2009. But they were behind the Phillies in batting "win probability." Meaning that the Phillies had fewer hits, but hit more when it counted. Sound familiar from the NCLS?

FanGraphs also had the Dodgers ranked first in Major League baseball in raw pitching. But the Dodgers' "clutch" value was a MINUS 1.84, putting them seventh in pitching "win probability."

That meant that the Dodgers  lost two more games than their raw statistics would suggest because their hurlers pitch well in games that the batters were likely to win anyway, and poorly in close ones.

The Giants, Rockies, Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels ahead of them all had positive clutch values, the three National League teams at the expense of the Dodgers.

Overall, the Dodgers' "win probability" was between fifth and sixth in baseball.

Meaning that even after the Giants and Cubs were eliminated before the postseason, the Dodgers did well to beat a clearly inferior Cardinals team, before falling to one of the three superior teams (the Yankees, Phillies, and Angels were all ahead of them).

During the season, the Dodgers had the largest differential (+169) between runs scored and runs allowed; more than the New York Yankees (+162) who won the World Series.

More than the Philadelphia Phillies (111), who beat them out of the NLCS. More even, than the other LA team, the Angels of Anaheim (122). It's just a matter of translating those extra runs into more wins.

"Sabermetrically," the Dodgers' win total should have been closer to 100 wins than the 95 that they actually got, putting them neck-and-neck with the New York Yankees, who should have earned fewer wins.

The culprits are not the ones that I would have thought (they're mostly veterans, not rookies). Among pitchers, aging Randy Wolf and Guillermo Mota accounted for more than the Dodgers' deficit, with part of it made up by other players.

On offense, the "drags" included Manny Ramirez and Orlando Hudson. The young pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are good, and getting better. Ditto for hitters like Andre Ethier.

Thus, writers like Jesse Motiff are right, that the Dodgers would be foolish to trade Chad Billingsley, even for someone like the Toronto Blue Jays' Roy Halladay. The Dodgers might need to think about replacing Ramirez, and Wolf, but that's about all.

This is a lesson for those who would advocate major trades or big signings: The Dodgers don't need more talent to go to the World Series. They just need to make better use of what they have.

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