Dallas (-2.5) 27 GREEN BAY 24
Green Bay should be better than 4-4 straight up given that the Packers have out-gained their opponents 5.9 yards per play to 4.8 yppl this season and are +10 in turnover margin. What's holding back the Packers from being a really good team is really bad special teams play. The Packers haven't given up any special teams touchdowns but their coverage units have been bad and that field position adds up when your opponent is averaging 7.5 net yards per punt more than you are.
Giving up field position to Dallas is not a good given how good the Cowboys' offense is (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team). Dallas has also been good defensively the last 4 games after starting the season with some defensive problems.
My math model actually gives the Cowboys a 56% chance of covering at -3 points in this game but Green Bay applies to a 107-41-6 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on last week's upset loss at Tampa Bay. Dallas, meanwhile, applies to a negative 75-136-3 ATS road letdown situation and the technical analysis favoring Green Bay offsets the line value favoring Dallas. I'll pass this one.
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