Philadelphia 24 SAN DIEGO (-1.0) 21
The Eagles have the advantage in this game regardless of which team has the ball. Philadelphia has been 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively this season (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) while the Chargers are 0.2 yppl better than average on defense, allowing 5.0 yppl to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team.
The Eagles also have a small edge when San Diego has the ball, as the Eagles are 0.5 yppl better than average on defense (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average defense) while the Chargers are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl). Philadelphia's biggest advantage is in special teams, even without injured kick returner Ellis Hobbs, as the Eagles have great coverage units and a very good punt returner in DeSean Jackson.
San Diego is worse than average in special teams and the loss of field position adds to the small edges that Philadelphia has in this game. The Eagles are hurting with depth in the secondary as reserve cornerbacks Hobbs and Joselio Hanson are both out - Hobbs for the season and Hanson for 4 weeks. My math model still favors Philadelphia by 3 points after adjusting for the likely drop in pass defense for Philadelphia.
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