Philadelphia Eagles logoPhiladelphia Eagles

Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For EAGLES (+1) @ CHARGERS

PHILADELPHIA - NOVEMBER 08:  Donovan McNabb #5 of the Philadelphia Eagles attempts to avoid the pass rush Victor Butler #57 of the Dallas Cowboys at Lincoln Financial Field on November 8, 2009 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. McNabb was sacked on the play.  The Cowboys won 20-16. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Al Bello/Getty Images
Robert StollCorrespondent INovember 13, 2009

Philadelphia 24 SAN DIEGO (-1.0) 21

Over/Under Total: 47.0
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-15

The Eagles have the advantage in this game regardless of which team has the ball. Philadelphia has been 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively this season (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) while the Chargers are 0.2 yppl better than average on defense, allowing 5.0 yppl to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team.

The Eagles also have a small edge when San Diego has the ball, as the Eagles are 0.5 yppl better than average on defense (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average defense) while the Chargers are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl). Philadelphia's biggest advantage is in special teams, even without injured kick returner Ellis Hobbs, as the Eagles have great coverage units and a very good punt returner in DeSean Jackson.

San Diego is worse than average in special teams and the loss of field position adds to the small edges that Philadelphia has in this game. The Eagles are hurting with depth in the secondary as reserve cornerbacks Hobbs and Joselio Hanson are both out - Hobbs for the season and Hanson for 4 weeks. My math model still favors Philadelphia by 3 points after adjusting for the likely drop in pass defense for Philadelphia.

Read more on my website

I have 8 NCAA Best Bets and 3 NCAA Strong Opinions this week, and 1 NFL Best Bet and 2 NFL Strong Opinion!

Read an article about me in the Wall Street Journal

Follow me on Facebook and Twitter for updates on Best Bet releases

Where can I comment?

Stay on your game

Latest news, insights, and forecasts on your teams across leagues.

Choose Teams
Get it on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Real-time news for your teams right on your mobile device.

Copyright © 2017 Bleacher Report, Inc. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved. is part of Bleacher Report – Turner Sports Network, part of the Turner Sports and Entertainment Network. Certain photos copyright © 2017 Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Getty Images is strictly prohibited. AdChoices