Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For DOLPHINS (-10) Vs. BUCS

Robert StollCorrespondent INovember 13, 2009

ATLANTA - SEPTEMBER 13:  Backup quarterback Pat White #6 of the Miami Dolphins against the Atlanta Falcons at Georgia Dome on September 13, 2009 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

MIAMI (-10.0) 24 Tampa Bay 17

Over/Under Total: 43.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-15

Miami has played the toughest schedule in the NFL so far this season, facing teams with an average rating of 5 1/2 points better than average. The Dolphins have only been out-scored by those teams by 1.4 points per game despite being out-gained 310 yards at 4.7 yards per play to 337 yards at 5.7 yppl and being -1 in turnover margin.

Miami won 38-10 in the only other game they've played against a worse than average team (home against Buffalo), so this could certainly be a blowout. However, Tampa Bay is improving and my math model only favors the Dolphins by 8 1/2 points in this game.

Miami is also just 3-21 ATS in their last 24 as a home favorite, including 1-4 ATS under the current regime. I'll lean with the Bucs and young quarterback Josh Freeman to keep this respectable.

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