MIAMI (-10.0) 24 Tampa Bay 17
Miami has played the toughest schedule in the NFL so far this season, facing teams with an average rating of 5 1/2 points better than average. The Dolphins have only been out-scored by those teams by 1.4 points per game despite being out-gained 310 yards at 4.7 yards per play to 337 yards at 5.7 yppl and being -1 in turnover margin.
Miami won 38-10 in the only other game they've played against a worse than average team (home against Buffalo), so this could certainly be a blowout. However, Tampa Bay is improving and my math model only favors the Dolphins by 8 1/2 points in this game.
Miami is also just 3-21 ATS in their last 24 as a home favorite, including 1-4 ATS under the current regime. I'll lean with the Bucs and young quarterback Josh Freeman to keep this respectable.
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