CENTRAL MICH (-17.0) 38 Toledo 27
This game depends a lot of how healthy Toledo quarterback Aaron Opelt is. Opelt injured his throwing shoulder a month ago against Western Michigan, missed 2 1/2 games and tried to play in week 9 against Miami-Ohio. Opelt struggled throwing the ball and was taken out, then later took himself out after reentering the game in the second half.
Opelt has had a week and a half to improve and he should be better, but he's not likely to be as good as was before the injury. Opelt has averaged a stellar 7.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback, which are better numbers than Central Michigan star Dan LeFevour. Toledo's backup quarterbacks have been horrible, so having Opelt operating at even mediocre levels is a must in this game since the Rockets' defense isn't good enough to keep the Chippewas good attack from scoring a lot of points.
If Opelt were to play at his pre-injury level then I'd only favor Central Michigan by 8 points in this game. If Opelt plays at the level of an average quarterback then I'd favor the Chippewas by 15 1/2 points, but with the extra time off it's likely that Opelt will be more than just average and I'll lean with Toledo based on that assumption. Then again, if Opelt lands on that shoulder again and is taken out then a Central Michigan blowout could ensue.
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