Ohio 26 BUFFALO (-1.5) 24
Buffalo will be without top back Ike Nduka (598 yards at 6.2 ypr) but freshman Jeffvon Gill ran for 172 yards on 23 carries last week in his first extensive time, so Nduka may not be missed. Bulls' quarterback Zach Maynard will miss the first quarter due to suspension, but Buffalo will probably run the ball more with backup Jerry Davis in and that probably won't hurt too much since I expect Buffalo to average 5.0 yards per rushing play in this game.
Ohio defends the pass pretty well (5.4 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average 5.6 yppp against an average team), but Maynard is a pretty decent passing quarterback (6.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB), so the Bulls should move the ball at about an average rate in this game.
Ohio is 0.5 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) but Buffalo is 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl), so Ohio should also be able to move the ball. The big difference in this game is special teams, which is an area that Buffalo really struggles in and Ohio's good field goal kicker or Buffalo's bad one could be the difference in what should be a close game. I'll lean with Ohio.
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