Northwestern-Illinois: Battle for the First Land of Lincoln Trophy

Jonathan Hodges by Contributor Written on November 10, 2009
EVANSTON, IL - OCTOBER 31: Mike Kafka #13 of the Northwestern Wildcats looks for a receiver against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Ryan Field on October 31, 2009 in Evanston, Illinois. Penn State defeated Northwestern 34-13. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

The Northwestern Wildcats (6-4, 3-3), coming off of a huge upset of previously undefeated Iowa, take to the road again to face the resurgent Illinois Fighting Illini (3-6, 2-5) in the first battle for the Land of Lincoln Trophy.

NU is already bowl eligible, while Illinois is looking to avoid being eliminated from bowl contention with another loss.

The Illini are, however, a vastly different team than the one that lost its first six games against FBS/I-A competition by an average of 17.8 points per game.

In fact, they've scored an average of 36.5 points per game during their current two-game winning streak and seem to be living up to lofty preseason expectations, particularly the offense.

The defense hasn't exactly been slouching either, despite losing star MLB Martez Wilson very early in the year.

DE Clay Nurse had four sacks last week against Minnesota (NU managed just one against the Gophers earlier in the year) and he also leads Illinois in tackles for a loss with 10.5 this season.

Meanwhile, Northwestern is arguably playing its best football of the season, having put together its first "complete" four-quarter effort against FBS/I-A competition beating previously-ranked No. 4 Iowa.

The Wildcats avoided major errors in all three phases of the game while capitalizing on Iowa's problems, with a +3 turnover margin and 14 points scored off of those.

NU did that despite lingering injuries on both sides of the ball, including performance-hindering injuries to both the starting QB Mike Kafka and backup QB Dan Persa.

The Wildcats showed that they can respond to Coach Fitzgerald's call to "pick up the flag," with Persa running wild in the first half and Kafka standing tough in the second.

The defense is also beginning to live up to preseason expectations, holding an opponent to under 100 yards rushing for the fourth time this year, and blanking Iowa for the final three quarters of the game.

Corey Wootton made what may be a season-defining play for Northwestern with a sack and a forced fumble in the end zone. After his offseason knee surgery, Wootton's season is beginning to resemble his first team, All-Big 10 campaign last year.

The Wildcats have won five of their last six against Illinois, but expect a closely contested game with both teams fighting for postseason hopes heading into the final week of the Big 10 season.

 

Opening Line

Illinois by 3.5

 

Who Should Win

Northwestern.

I don't care what the line says.

Despite some significant injuries, NU started the season playing better than Illinois and has improved down the stretch, culminating in last week's win over Iowa.

Meanwhile, Illinois is giving up 26.6 points per game and may be forced to play a redshirt freshman at QB. We saw what happened when Iowa was in that situation last week.

 

Upset Factor

Illinois is undoubtedly playing much better football than they did through the first seven games of the season. 

They are finally utilizing some of that talent that Coach Zook has stocked up.

Their run game is key. They've averaged 225 yards per game on the ground during their current two-game winning streak.

If they can continue to use all of their offensive weapons, they could pull off a win.

 

What to Look For

Northwestern Offense against the Illinois Defense:

The Wildcats' offensive hopes are once again tied to the health of its quarterbacks.

Kafka tried limping through a few snaps early, but Persa was obviously the better option as he came in to throw a TD and run for 75 yards (removing sack numbers) in just about two quarters of action.

Unfortunately, his hand got dinged up and he was forced out of the game.

Kafka will get another week for his hamstring to heal, and with Persa day-to-day, NU could have a problem with two dual-threat options come game day.

With Persa's solid performance last week, NU fans can be confident with either option behind center.

The offensive line did an admirable job last week, allowing just three sacks against a very dangerous Iowa defensive front who knew that NU had a hobbled QB for the second half.

They opened up enough holes for RB Scott Concannon to gain 59 yards (no carries for negative yards), which definitely helped milk NU's lead.

However, Illinois has been improving on that side of the ball, holding Michigan's spread attack to 13 points two weeks ago in Champaign.

Linebacker Ian Thomas leads the way with 72 tackles on the year. Nurse provides a potent threat from one edge and DT Josh Brent is second on the team in both TFL (7.0) and sacks (3.0).

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Vote Now! - Author Poll

What will be the result of the Northwestern-Illinois game?

  • Northwestern wins by 10 or more
  • Northwestern wins by less than 10
  • Illinois wins by 3 or less
  • Illinois wins by more than 3
vote to see results
Results - Author Poll

What will be the result of the Northwestern-Illinois game?

  • Northwestern wins by 10 or more

    34.8%
  • Northwestern wins by less than 10

    30.4%
  • Illinois wins by 3 or less

    4.3%
  • Illinois wins by more than 3

    30.4%
  • Total votes: 23
(0)
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written on November 10, 2009 Preview/Prediction

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