Tonight’s pivotal matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) and Denver Broncos is just the second Monday Night Football game of the 2009 season between non-divisional opponents.
In the first such contest, the home team Dallas Cowboys had little trouble disposing of the winless Carolina Panthers, 27-7 in Week Three.
Aside from tonight’s game being between two non-divisional Conference foes, there are very few similarities to compare with that Panthers-Cowboys matchup, including the popular vote amongst bettors.
Late money seems to be moving the betting line at online sportsbooks away from the Super Bowl champs and onto the home town Broncos. Searching across the Web for line tracking services that post betting odds reveals that taking Denver plus the points comes with a price. And some of the more exotic sportsbooks are even posting lines of Pittsburgh -2.5!
A pitiful 2-10 ATS mark for favorites on NFL Sunday betting is likely the biggest reason for the sudden change of heart with bettors. Capped by Philadelphia’s awful clock management, poor use of timeouts and pitiful play-calling in general, which led to a home upset loss against Dallas, betting favorites on Sunday led many to the poorhouse.
Normally when favorite bettors get beaten badly on Sunday, though, the course of action includes reloading the online betting account, putting an absurd amount of money down on the Monday Night favorite and watching history repeat itself. Pittsburgh has won four in a row, haven’t they?
Denver (6-1 SU) is coming off its worst performance of the season but it does set this game up for a system play that has paid bettors at an amazing 91-percent rate since 1970. It was provided Monday by Greg Dempson on BRTV.
Play ON a Monday night home team off a non shutout road loss last week when they allowed 30 or more points and lost straight-up by 21 or more points. (No bye in-between)
Record since 1970: 20-2 ATS (91-percent)
As a home dog against the likes of Dallas or New England, Denver received very little attention. Two upset wins and a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS home record later, they are a very likable home pup. Overall the Broncos have a 4-1 ATS record in five games as an underdog this season against teams with a combined 26-13 SU record.
When online sportsbooks posted the line seven days ago, bettors were still digesting the first blemish on Denver’s record. Line movement was insignificant through the first six days of betting but anyone making picks on the Broncos in the final countdown to kickoff is now paying a price of inflated juice on the line.
Perhaps Denver’s perfect 3-0 ATS all-time mark as a Monday Night Football home underdog has something to do with it. Or could it be that NFL bettors are just starting to believe?
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