IDP Wednesday: Week 10

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IDP Wednesday:  Week 10
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IDP Wednesday is dedicated to the stepchildren of the Fantasy Football world—The Individual Defensive Players. It's broken up into the following six parts:

1. Bye-Week Fillers —This section is dedicated to the players who may not be great, but should have a solid, if not spectacular week because of the situation they're in this week.
2. Go and Get 'Em —This section is dedicated to players you should think about for the rest of the way.
3. The Favorable & Formidable Fives —This section lists the five best and worst teams allowing points to the DL, LB and DB positions this year.
4. IDP Opportunity —The average NFL game has 126 plays (average for one team is 63 offensive plays and 63 defensive plays). This section illustrates the top and bottom five teams that are above and below that average for both offense and defense showing you which IDP players are getting more opportunities to pad their stats.
5. Playoff Considerations —This section is devoted to what you need to be thinking about with the playoffs coming up.
6. IDP Injury Considerations —This section is devoted to who's out and who you should get as a replacement.

Hope you enjoy and please keep in mind that for the purposes of this article, I am excluding the top 20 linebackers, top 15 defensive backs and top 10 defensive linemen as I'm assuming that they are already on someone's team.

Bye-Week Fillers (Good for This Week)

Byes Week 9: Houston and New York Giants

Well, my calls on White, Abraham and my linebackers were spot on. Though the DBs did alright, they didn't do nearly what I thought they would. On to this weeks picks:

Thus far this year, if you take out the bye-week recommendations that were benched after my original Wednesday posting (two players) and players that were injured in the first half and didn't return (two players), here are my averages for each position so far:

Using My Preferred IDP Scoring System:

Solo Assists Sack Int FF PD TD
2 1 4 4 3 2 6


Avg. Return for Bye-Week Filler Positions I've Recommended:

Position Point Total That Week
LB 16
DB 13
DL 9


Week 10 Recommendations:

DL

1. John Abraham (Atlanta FalconsDE) —Using my 'Abraham/Kelsay Combo Method' that I go into detail about in the 'Go and Get 'Em' section this week, for week 10, we will be putting in Abraham who goes up against one of the best teams in the NFL for a DE to face—the Carolina Panthers.

2. Marques Douglas (New York JetsDE) —Currently, Douglas is averaging about four tackles a game and has 1 1/2 sacks on the year. He gets Jacksonville this week who is a top five play for a DE.

LB

1. Hunter Hillenmeyer (Chicago BearsMLB) —With five solo tackles and five assists, Hillenmeyer had a very productive game last week against the Cardinals. This week, Hillenmeyer goes to San Francisco who is also a top five team for a MLB to play. Expect about the same numbers at the end of the day for him.

2. DeMarcus Ware (Dallas Cowboys - OLB) - In sack-heavy formats, Ware should be used this week.  He goes to Green Bay and there is simply no one on that offensive line that can stop him.  He should have a very nice day against the Packers.

3. Clint Session (Indianapolis ColtsWLB) —Over the last two games, Session has averaged 11 total tackles (10 solo's) and should continue a similar pace against New England this week.

DB

1. Donte Whitner (Buffalo Bills
SS) —It sounds like Whitner will be back this week. With Jairus Byrd playing so well, I believe Byrd will continue playing at FS while Whitner will move to his preferred role at SS. I'm telling you, people, get on this freight train before it leaves the station as he is going to be a monster for the second-half of the season.  If for some reason Whitner can't go, Bryan Scott will be the one you want in his place.

2. Melvin Bullitt (Indianapolis ColtsSS) —New England has been one of the better teams all year for safeties to play and this should be no different for Bullitt. Expect solid numbers for him against the Patriots.

3. Ron Bartell (St. Louis RamsCB) —Bartell has quietly had a very productive season, thus far. With New Orleans coming in to play the Rams this week, this could be his best game of the season. Use him with confidence.

Go and Get 'Em (Worth Considering Over the Long Term)

DL

Previous Recommendations I Still Like:

Andre Carter, Elvis Dumervil, James Hall, Anthony Hargrove, Robaire Smith, Jason Taylor, "Stylez G" White, Jimmy Wilkerson

This Week:

1. John Abraham & Chris Kelsay Combo Method (Atlanta Falcons & Buffalo BillsDE) —For all of you who weren't fortunate enough to get Jared Allen, Elvis Dumervil, Aaron Schobel or Andre Carter, I have a pretty good strategy for you to implement the rest of the way. I call it the Abraham/Kelsay Combo Method. Simply put, we are going to play the Top 10 match-ups from now through week 16 using two alright guys to try and make them one studly producer each and every week. To implement this strategy, play the following player for each given week:

Week 10: John Abraham vs. Carolina
Week 11: Chris Kelsay vs. Jacksonville
Week 12: Chris Kelsay vs. Miami
Week 13: Chris Kelsay vs. New York Jets
Week 14: Chris Kelsay vs. Kansas City
Week 15: John Abraham vs. New York Jets
Week 16: John Abraham vs. Buffalo


LB

Previous Recommendations I Still Like:

Nick Barnett, Keith Brooking (downgrade as Bobby Carpenter replaces him on 3rd downs now), Keith Bulluck, Brian Cushing, Andra Davis, Justin Durant, Larry Foote, David Hawthorne, LeRoy Hill, Hunter Hillenmeyer, Thomas Howard, Kaluka Maiava, Calvin Pace, Mike Peterson, Paul Posluszney, Stephen Tulloch, Will Witherspoon

This Week:

1. Landon Johnson (Carolina PanthersWLB) —Well, to all you Thomas Davis owners who were able to ride the tsunami season known as Thomas Davis, welcome back to the real world. Though I don't believe Johnson will be nearly as productive as I think this more helps Beason's numbers over the long term, Johnson still needs to be picked up to see what he can do.

2. Kaluka Maiava (Cleveland BrownsILB) —As I wrote last week, since the injury of D'Qwell Jackson, Maiava has averaged four solo tackles, one assist, has one forced fumble and one pass deflection. Maiava is an average linebacker in a spectacular position the rest of the way. I believe his numbers are going to be a little better than what they have been the rest of the way for him.

3. Hunter Hillenmeyer (Chicago Bears
MLB) —It's very hard to find a MLB in a 4-3 this late in the game. Hillenmeyer is just that. Though his numbers haven't been great, they are at least worth rostering in leagues that play two or three linebackers each week. Even though his schedule the rest of the way is pretty rough for him (well, other than this week against San Francisco where he should have a pretty good game) , I still think he will be a guy who gets you four to five solo tackles and one or two assists each week going forward.

Other LB Notes:

1. David Hawthorne (Seattle Seahawks
MLB) —He is a monster and should be picked-up and used every week in all formats.
2. LeRoy Hill (Seattle SeahawksWLB) —Has averaged 5.5 solo tackles and .5 assists since his return two weeks ago.


DB

Previous Recommendations I Still Like:

Jordan Babineaux, Atari Bigby, Tyvon Branch, C.C. Brown, Mike Brown, Erik Coleman, Thomas DeCoud, Louis Delmas, Reed Doughty, Abram Elam, Deshon Goldson, Chris Harris, Michael Lewis, Brandon McGowan, Sabby Piscitelli, Bernard Pollard, Gerald Sensabaugh, Donte Whitner (Injured)/George Wilson

This Week:

1. LaRon Landry (Washington RedskinsFS) —Over the course of this year, Landry has averaged roughly five solo tackles and one assist. With a schedule very favorable to putting up a lot of points for the second half of the season (Dallas twice, Philadelphia, New Orleans, New York Giants and San Diego), Landry should be owned in all formats going forward.

2. Melvin Bullitt (Indianapolis ColtsSS) —With the oft-injured Bob Sanders now on injured reserve, Bullitt is a must add in all formats. Last week against Houston, Bullitt had seven solo tackles. That pace should continue this week against New England, as well.

3. Ron Bartell (St. Louis RamsCB) —Somewhat quietly, Bartell has had a very productive year. On the season, he is averaging six solo tackles a game, has three forced fumbles, and three pass deflections. Like Landry above, Bartell has a very favorable second-half schedule (Arizona twice, New Orleans, Seattle, Chicago, and Houston).

Other DB Notes:

1. Antoine Winfield (Minnesota Vikings
CB) —Out Indefinitely—Benny Sapp is the replacement.

Favorable & Formidable Fives


As one looks at the Favorable portion below, you will notice that you want your DL players to play Green Bay and your LB and DB players to play New Orleans.

As for the Formidable portion, DLs haven't been successful against Dallas' o-line, linebackers aren't productive against Philadelphia and you already knew to stay away from Oakland with your DBs. One other note, though they haven't been represented yet in these charts below, St. Louis has been just an awful place for MLBs to play these past three games. In those contests, MLBs are only averaging 3 solo tackles, so be cautious if your guys play the Rams and truly think about benching them no matter who they are.

Favorable (Ordered w/ Best Team to Play First):

Rank DL LB DB


1 Green Bay New Orleans New Orleans


2 Carolina Carolina New York Giants


3 New York Jets
Miami Atlanta


4 Washington San Francisco
Seattle


5 Miami Cincinnati Pittsburgh



Formidable (Ordered w/ Worst Team to Play First):

Rank DL LB DB
1 Dallas Green Bay
Oakland
2 Denver Dallas San Francisco
3 Atlanta Philadelphia Buffalo
4 Cincinnati Atlanta Cleveland
5 Indianapolis Tampa Bay
St. Louis




IDP Opportunity


As mentioned at the beginning of this post, these four charts are to illustrate which players are actually getting more opportunities to fill up their stat sheet just because they are on a certain team.

Offensively, what can be gained from these first two charts along with the 'Favorable & Formidable Fives' section is that you want your safeties and linebackers to go up against New England and New Orleans. If you have a DB going up against Oakland, bench him. If you have a linebacker going up against St. Louis, also bench him.

As far as the defensive play portion (bottom two charts), if one of your IDPers plays on Buffalo, Cleveland or Oakland, this is primarily why they've been doing so well. If one of your IDPers plays for Miami or Carolina and his name isn't Thomas Davis, this is primarily why he hasn't. Please adjust your rosters accordingly.

Most Amount of Offensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.6):

Team Plays Pass Rush
New England 69.0 40 28
New Orleans 67.0 33 32
New York Giants 66.7 33 32
Seattle 66.4 40 24
Miami 66.3 30 33


Least Amount of Offensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.6):

Team Plays Pass Rush
Oakland 54.4 25 26
Cleveland 57.9 29 26
San Francisco
58.0 32 23
Buffalo 58.3 28 27
Tampa Bay
59.0 34 24


Most Amount of Defensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.6):

Team Plays Pass Rush
Buffalo 71.0 35 34
Cleveland 69.4 32 35
Oakland 66.8 29 36
Tennessee 66.6 39 25
Philadelphia 65.9 35 27


Least Amount of Defensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.6):

Team Plays Pass Rush
New York Giants 53.6 28 23
New England 58.5 31 25
Carolina 58.8 29 28
Houston 58.9 34 23
Green Bay
59.5 30 28


Playoff Considerations

If your at a point where you're wondering what the SOS (Strength of Schedule) is like for the IDPers on your squad, take a look at this great recommendation from the Fantasy Football Librarian :

FFToolbox.com's SOS Application

Not quite sure the methodology behind it and would like to see it broken out into DE, ILB, OLB, SS, FS & CB, but I have a feeling those will be coming in the future. With that said, seriously, is there a better SOS fantasy football tool on the web?! If there is, I haven't found it yet.

IDP Injury Considerations

Player Pos Return You Want
Scott Fujita LB Should Return This Week
Lawrence Timmons LB Might Return This Week James Farrior
Ricky Brown LB Might Return This Week John Alston
David Thornton LB Out Indefinitely Gerald McRath
Ernie Sims LB Out Indefinitely DeAndre Levy
Keith Rivers LB Out Indefinitely Dehani Jones
Brian Urlacher LB Out Rest of Season Nick Roach
Michael Boley LB Out Rest of Season Chase Blackburn
Lofa Tatupu LB Out Rest of Season David Hawthorne
D'Qwell Jackson LB Out Rest of Season Kaluka Maiava
Omar Gaither LB Out Rest of Season Will Witherspoon
Pisa Tinoisama LB Out Rest of Season Nick Roach
Eric Barton LB Out Rest of Season David Veikune
Thomas Davis LB Out Rest of Season Landon Johnson
Roy Williams DB Should Return This Week
Bryan Scott DB Should Return This Week
Donte Whitner DB Might Return This Week Jairus Byrd
Nick Harper DB Might Return This Week Elsewhere
Antoine Winfield DB Out Until Week 11-13 Benny Sapp
Nate Clements DB Out Until Week 14-16 Dashon Goldson
Chris Horton DB Out Until Week 13-15 Reid Doughty
Michael Lewis DB Out Indefinitely Deshon Goldson
Al Afalava DB Out Indefinitely Elsewhere
Jermaine Phillips DB Out Rest of Season Sabby Piscitelli
Daniel Bullocks DB Out Rest of Season Louis Delmas
Kenny Phillips DB Out Rest of Season C.C. Brown
Will Allen DB Out Rest of Season Elsewhere
Jarrad Page DB Out Rest of Season Mike Brown
Greg Ellis DL Out Until Week 11 Elsewhere
Justin Tuck DL Out Indefinitely Elsewhere
Antwan Odom DL Out Rest of Season Michael Johnson
Kris Jenkins DL Out Rest of Season Elsewhere


_________________________________________

Remember, you can always go to Numbers and Guts.com to check out all of Justin Curry's IDP advice.

-Justin Curry

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