I know, believe me, I know. You think I'm crazy. You think I'm delusional. You think I didn't take my meds today. But, the fact is that Penn State, somehow, someway still has a shot at making a BCS bowl game.
Do they deserve it? Absolutely not. They lost against the only two quality teams they've played at home and for much of those games they were dominated.
Do I even want them to make a BCS bowl? No, I really don't. Despite the money and exposure it would be much more valuable to play in a lesser bowl against a more even opponent in order to build for next year.
But can it still happen? Yes. Some things need to happen first but those things are not at all out of the realm of possibility.
Let's break it down.
Notre Dame losing to Navy was huge, they are out of the BCS picture.
Cincinnati and Pitt play each other meaning one of them obviously has to lose. Penn State would be selected over a one loss Cincinnati or two loss Pitt team.
Boise and TCU deserve to be there but the odds that both will are not great. Everyone likes to talk about them but when push comes to shove nobody watches them.
And don't kid yourself, the BCS was designed to pick the top two teams for the National Championship. After that, the order of teams in the rankings means nothing, bowls get to pick and choose who they want. And that means whoever will bring the best TV ratings and the most fans will go. Fair? No, but true.
But on we go and this is where people will start screaming.
Iowa vs. Ohio State is this weekend. The loser of this game will not go to the BCS. Ohio State obviously because of three losses but also Iowa with two losses.
Iowa would drop out of the top 14 and lose eligibility and even if they rebound vs Minnesota the TV appeal and fan base of Penn State trumps the Hawkeyes. It's very sad, but it's very true.
Now, if Texas wins out and goes to the National Championship game, which they should, the Fiesta Bowl will probably look for a Big 12 replacement. The only viable option would be Oklahoma State (19). So, if Oklahoma State loses to Texas Tech, Colorado, or Oklahoma, the Fiesta Bowl will look elsewhere.
LSU is out. No conference can have more than two teams in the BCS. Florida and Alabama in, LSU out.
Miami and Arizona are possibilities, but are not likely. Miami does not travel well, an important factor, so the only bowl who might want them is the Orange Bowl. Unfortunately, they already have a tie with the ACC Champ which will most likely be Georgia Tech and they definitely do not want an ACC rematch.
Arizona has two losses and looks nice but has a brutal schedule remaining, playing the best of the Pac-10. If they come out of it with only two losses they deserve a bid but I don't see it happening.
If Penn State wins out they have a good shot. Remember teams ahead of them actually play legit schedules and when they lose, Penn State will move past them. They don't deserve it, but get used to the idea that it could happen.