Well, it's been a long time getting here, but here we are at Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers , a brilliant fight card that should keep us healthy with MMA-related goodness until the Christmas and NYE shows.
All lines given as decimals: 1.55 means that for every 1.00 you place, you get 0.55 in return, in addition to your 1.00.
Lines taken from Sportsbook.com.
PS: I wasn't able to add the poster of the fight card as the article photo, so if an editor could be so kind?
Antonio Silva vs Fabricio Werdum
(265 lbs/120 kg)
+Good striker, and surprising light on his feet for such a large man
+Decent ground game
+Good size advantage (6′5″, 265 lbs)
-Not a good wrestler
-Can be inaggressive at times
-Not a one-hit KO artist
+Highly decorated Jiu Jitsu black belt and has won gold in ADCC
-Sub par wrestler
-Very average striker
-Not the best ground and pound
Werdum will pose a severe danger to Silva if he gets it to the ground, but Werdum is not a strong wrestler and does not have explosive shots, and he has had trouble putting people on the mat, thinking particularly the Arlovski fight.
Silva isn’t the most aggressive fighter on the planet, but he may find that an advantage, as he can stay outside of Werdum’s range, and pick him apart using his reach.
Despite his impressive TKO percentage, I would be surprised if Silva KO’d Werdum.
Leaning towards Silva by unanimous decision. Werdum is favorite at 1.65, while Silva is at 2.25, so of course I’ll choose Silva.
Jake Shields vs. Jason Miller
(185 lbs/84 kg)
+Excellent grappler, Jiu Jitsu black belt
-Not a good striker
-Ground and pound could be better
-Not a KO artist
Shields will very likely outwrestle Miller and keep him on the mat, but when Jacaré couldn’t submit Mayhem, it’s hard to see anyone doing so.
Nonetheless, Shields is a very prolific wrestler, moreso than Jacaré, so he will definitely be pleased with how long Miller was kept on the ground in that fight.
Miller may have an advantage standing, but looking at Miller’s low KO rates it’s hard to see him putting Shields away before the shot.
Shields by unanimous decision, a pretty boring fight, I’d guess. Shields is at 1.34, while Miller is at 3.35, but I’ll bet on Shields.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
(205 lbs/93 kg)
+High quality boxer/kickboxer—former Dutch amateur boxing champ
+Very good ground game with a dangerous guard
+Very good ground and pound
+Very good training partners
+Explosive KO power
+Strength and athleticism
-No submissions and never looked good grappling
Thierry has an advantage in sheer power and perhaps a little strength and athleticism, but has severe cardio issues and a poor ground game, while the Armenian has no real weaknesses.
I would also say that Mousasi has better striking and of course he has a better ground game.
Sokoudjou could always blast him at the opening bell, but I can’t really see Mousasi falling in that manner, and will likely be patient in looking for openings and exploit Sokoudjou’s cardio, which will probably be worse considering he has fighting at openweight for his last two bouts.
Mousasi by TKO, Round 2. Mousasi is at 1.20 while Sokoudjou is at 4.00, so as sure as Mousasi is to win, I’d rather place something on the African.
Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers
(265 lbs/ 120 kg)
+Extreme KO power, with all of his victories by way of KO, TKO, or submission (strikes)
+Size advantage, at 6′5″ and 265 lbs
+Mentally in good shape
-Brawler, with just hooks
-No proven ground game
-No proven wrestling background
+World class upper body clinchwork—a three time World Combat Sambo champion as well as a national Judo champion
+Explosively powerful striking that sets up clinch well
+Transitions between striking and grappling are perfect
+Very good head movement
+Durable and can take punishment
+Excellent submission skills
-First fight in a cage
-Hasn’t really used Muay Thai since training with Golden Glory in 2005