Strikeforce: Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers—Predictions/Tips

Flying KneeCorrespondent INovember 7, 2009

NEW YORK - JANUARY 20:  Heavyweight mixed martial arts champion Fedor 'The Last Emperor' Emelianenko of Russia attends the 'Day of Reckoning' press conference at Trump Tower January 20, 2009 in New York City.  (Photo by Joe Corrigan/Getty Images)
Joe Corrigan/Getty Images

Well, it's been a long time getting here, but here we are at Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers , a brilliant fight card that should keep us healthy with MMA-related goodness until the Christmas and NYE shows.

All lines given as decimals: 1.55 means that for every 1.00 you place, you get 0.55 in return, in addition to your 1.00.

Lines taken from

PS: I wasn't able to add the poster of the fight card as the article photo, so if an editor could be so kind?


Antonio Silva vs Fabricio Werdum

(265 lbs/120 kg)

+Good striker, and surprising light on his feet for such a large man
+Decent ground game
+Good size advantage (6′5″, 265 lbs)

-Not a good wrestler
-Can be inaggressive at times
-Not a one-hit KO artist

+Highly decorated Jiu Jitsu black belt and has won gold in ADCC
+Judo knowledge

-Sub par wrestler
-Very average striker
-Not the best ground and pound







Werdum will pose a severe danger to Silva if he gets it to the ground, but Werdum is not a strong wrestler and does not have explosive shots, and he has had trouble putting people on the mat, thinking particularly the Arlovski fight.

Silva isn’t the most aggressive fighter on the planet, but he may find that an advantage, as he can stay outside of Werdum’s range, and pick him apart using his reach.

Despite his impressive TKO percentage, I would be surprised if Silva KO’d Werdum.


Leaning towards Silva by unanimous decision. Werdum is favorite at 1.65, while Silva is at 2.25, so of course I’ll choose Silva.


Jake Shields vs. Jason Miller

(185 lbs/84 kg)

+Great wrestler
+Excellent grappler, Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Good cardio

-Not a good striker
-Ground and pound could be better

+Good grappler
+Almost unsubmittable
+Decent striker
+Good cardio

-Questionable wrestling
-Not a KO artist





Shields will very likely outwrestle Miller and keep him on the mat, but when Jacaré couldn’t submit Mayhem, it’s hard to see anyone doing so.

Nonetheless, Shields is a very prolific wrestler, moreso than Jacaré, so he will definitely be pleased with how long Miller was kept on the ground in that fight.

Miller may have an advantage standing, but looking at Miller’s low KO rates it’s hard to see him putting Shields away before the shot.


Shields by unanimous decision, a pretty boring fight, I’d guess. Shields is at 1.34, while Miller is at 3.35, but I’ll bet on Shields.


Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

(205 lbs/93 kg)

+High quality boxer/kickboxer—former Dutch amateur boxing champ
+Very good ground game with a dangerous guard
+Very good ground and pound
+Very good training partners
+Highly strategic

+Good kickboxer
+Explosive KO power
+Judo background
+Strength and athleticism

-Bad cardio
-Poor heart
-No submissions and never looked good grappling





Thierry has an advantage in sheer power and perhaps a little strength and athleticism, but has severe cardio issues and a poor ground game, while the Armenian has no real weaknesses.

I would also say that Mousasi has better striking and of course he has a better ground game.

Sokoudjou could always blast him at the opening bell, but I can’t really see Mousasi falling in that manner, and will likely be patient in looking for openings and exploit Sokoudjou’s cardio, which will probably be worse considering he has fighting at openweight for his last two bouts.


Mousasi by TKO, Round 2. Mousasi is at 1.20 while Sokoudjou is at 4.00, so as sure as Mousasi is to win, I’d rather place something on the African.



Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers

(265 lbs/ 120 kg)

+Extreme KO power, with all of his victories by way of KO, TKO, or submission (strikes)
+Size advantage, at 6′5″ and 265 lbs
+Mentally in good shape

-Brawler, with just hooks
-No proven ground game
-No proven wrestling background
-Uncertain cardio

+World class upper body clinchwork—a three time World Combat Sambo champion as well as a national Judo champion
+Explosively powerful striking that sets up clinch well
+Transitions between striking and grappling are perfect
+Very good head movement
+Durable and can take punishment
+Excellent submission skills

-First fight in a cage
-Hasn’t really used Muay Thai since training with Golden Glory in 2005

Does Rogers do any one thing better than Fedor? I can’t say so.
Rogers has bombs for fists, but Fedor has no shortage in that regard either.
Furthermore, Fedor has defeated strikers like Semmy Schilt, Mirko Cro Cop, Mark Hunt, Andrei Arlovski and Gary Goodridge. Rogers has a win over Arlovski.
Truly, I wouldn’t view Rogers as anything other than a poor man’s version of 2006 Mark Hunt, who had a diamond jaw, an awesome punch and professional kickboxing skills, and a body type that made him difficult to take to the ground.

Fedor has to win on paper. Without a flash KO from a wild haymaker, Rogers’s chances are slim. Fedor by KO, Round 1. Fedor is at 1.17, while Rogers at 5.00. I’m trying Fedor and Shields.


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