Christian Petersen/Getty Images
ULM is a mentally tough team. They sit at 4-4 overall, but their four losses are to Sunbelt powerhouse Troy and 3 BCS schools.
They have beaten both FIU and FAU in competitive games that really didn't show me much beyond mental toughness, but they broke the hearts of the Arkansas State Red wolves on a wet field in Louisiana last month.
ASU was playing some very tough football and ULM just flat punched them in the mouth, grinding out a smash mouth win on the ground—without the Warhawks' starting QB who was lost in the game.
For anyone who thinks UNT will sneak up on these guys and run away from them in a 55-45 shootout, I would strongly suggest a less optimistic view.
UNT can beat these guys, but it would have to be in a slug out. UNT will have to commit to stopping the run and their starting CBS will have to play out of their minds. The Mean Green OL will have to have a great game opening holes for Dunbar. If any of these things don't happen, the Warhawks should win this game.
ULM gives up 99 yards rushing per game
UNT will face a very tough front seven. UNT fans love Lance Dunbar and praise him like he is the second coming, but they need to cool that off a bit in preparation for this game and look at the Troy game. The last time UNT faced a good run defense, their offensive line was exposed as the undersized pass blocking line that it is.
Dunbar is a reasonable talent as a runner. He isn't exceptionally big or strong yet. He isn't a physical runner who can regularly and repeatedly break tackles yet. He is a very smart runner who sets up defenders and eludes blockers. He has good speed, but really he has good burst. He is really an ideal fit for the Dodge offense, which spreads a defense wide and allows Dunbar to find gaps and burst to open space.
In the time Troy had their starters in, Dunbar had no gaps to run through. Troy's starting defense owned the UNT OL. While the Trojan starters were in, Dunbar had nowhere to go.
UNT had a hard time scoring at all. UNT is a dramatically lesser offense when they cannot run the ball. Riley Dodge may have played very well last week, but I am not ready to predict he can play an interception free half without a strong running game in support. As much as he and the passing game improved from a maturity point last week, I think his development will be a process, not an overnight thing.
If the run is taken away again this week this could be a hard game for UNT. UNT's line has to have a great run blocking day.
UNT gives up 194.8 yards per game
UNT cannot spot these guys 200 yards on the ground. ULM has a very good but not exceptional running game. They aren't the most explosive running game UNT will see, but they will go back to the run time and time again.
Statistically ULM's rushing totals are great, running for 174.2 yards per game. Frank Goodin is a very sound back who has been ULM's workhorse this year accounting for about half of their rushing yards. He has 707 yards on 147 carries for a strong 4.8 yards per carry.
This team will pound on UNT all day long.
On the flipside, UNT might be the same weak run defense we have seen for the last month plus or they may play to their talent and really give ULM trouble.
UNT may commit to stuffing the run with some safety help like they did in the fourth quarter vs. WKU. UNT held the Hilltoppers to 16 total yards in the fourth quarter when they committed to stuffing the run.
On the positive side, UNT won't struggle nearly as badly as they did in the first half vs. WKU. Every problem UNT had in the first half vs. WKU was correctable and most of it was corrected in the second half of that game.
The swapping of Eddrick Gilmore to DE and Tevinn Cantly to DT solidified both positions a great deal. Gilmore is a big defensive end who has a great sense of when to switch to a power rush. He forced WKU's QB out of the pocket on a play that forced a fumble that he then recovered that lead to a game tying TD. He also beat his man for a safety last week that iced the game.
He may very well be guy who disrupts things and regularly forces the QB out of the pocket, generating the easy plays that this DL has desperately needed all season long.
Cantly for his part had a solid second half at DT vs. WKU. Cantly has the size and athleticism to be a good player at any spot on the DL but seemed to be a little bit of a disappointment at end. Lost in the shffle. At DT he is much closer to the action and it seemed to really suit him last game. He is still adjusting to the move, but I would not be suprised to see a breakout game from Cantly in the last few games.
0 Comments
Loading more comments...
This comment and all replies have been deleted This comment has been deleted Undo delete