#5 Boise St. (-20.5) 34 LOUISIANA TECH 14
I know Boise State would like to win as impressively as possible to keep themselves highly thought about by those people filling out the polls because the Broncos' computer ranking is going to drop regardless of how much they win by (margin of victory is not used on those computer rankings, which is stupid).
However, I've found that teams in the situation where winning big is important tend to have more control over that at home than they do on the road. In fact, I used Boise State as a Strong Opinion last week because they applied to a situation that played on home teams with zero losses (TCU also covered in that angle last week).
There is no such evidence that teams that need to win big can do so on the road and my math model favors Boise State by just 19 1/2 points, which is where this line opened. I'll pass.
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