Strikeforce: "Fedor Vs. Rogers" Preview and Predictions

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Staring across the Rubicon river in 49 BC, Julius Casear knew he faced an a critical juncture in his life, a true all or nothing moment. All around him, his army marched into the attack. Across the river lay Rome, the city he had served for his entire adult life - now, it would serve him. Weighted by all of this, the future emperor of Rome turned to a friend and uttered a now famous phrase.

Alea iacta est. “The die is cast”. I think Scott Coker would sympathize.

For him and his company, everything is on the line this Saturday night. A big night makes them the legitimate #2 MMA promotion in North America. A bad night, and he will most likely never get a shot on network television again. For Coker and Strikeforce, it’s all or nothing.

Still, you’ve got to give it to the San Hose promotion - their growth from a low level, regional promotion to one verging on a national presence is startling and impressive. They carefully avoided many of the pitfalls that doomed other startup promotions, keeping a low profile while building up their own stable of stars and establishing consistency in putting on exciting, well matched cards. They showed great business savvy in bolstering their roster with big names like Cung Le, Gina Carano, and Alastair Overeem to interest, even if it was only temporary.

To my mind, the way Coker and Co. have built and promoted Strikeforce should serve as the model of how to develop a competing Mixed Martial Arts brand in North America - but the crucial final chapter, the one that will determine failure or success for Strikeforce and their business model, will be written Saturday. This is key because while Strikeforce has largely done their own thing their own way, they now gamble their success the same way so many others have - on a certain Russian heavyweight who just may be the best fighter alive today.

No doubt about it folks - the pressure is on Fedor Emelianenko to finally prove he can be a legitimate draw in North America. This is a dubious, risky, and downright unproven proposition. The graveyard of failed MMA promotions is filled with companies who took a chance on Fedor as a star attraction - and collapsed into bankruptcy as a result (while M-1 made off handsomely - but that‘s a subject for another blog).

Think about this for a moment - every promotion Fedor has ever competed in has gone out of buisness while he was the heavyweight champion. This is his last - and greatest - chance to finally prove he can be a draw outside the hardcore fans, and maybe, just maybe, fill that elusive void of “World Heavyweight Champion” left empty by professional boxing.

It’s a big night for the sport folks, no doubt about it.

I know I’ve said some bad things about Fedor Emelianenko in the past, and have been harsh in my criticism of his recent career choices. Still, let me be clear - after the corrupt, embarrassing Elite XC network fiasco’s of last year, I’m damn proud of the fact that Fedor Emelianenko is headlining a major MMA card on network TV. He is everything I want this sport to represent to the mass audience - the lack of ego, the martial spirit, a love of ice cream - and his being on TV now after Kimbo Slice and James Thompson is a definite sign of progress.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers

Alright, so I’m gushingly, proud mom-esque in my praise of Fedor as a network TV star - but I’m frustrated too, because for the umpteenth time in his recent career, he is in a lose/lose fight.

I understand the matchmaking of this fight from Strikeforce’s point of view. HW champion Alastair Overeem seems uninterested in ever returning stateside to defend his title, and the promotion has spent more time marketing and promoting Rogers then any other fighter in their rather thin HW roster. When it comes to attracting casual viewers, this is probably the best bet - but in terms of Fedor’s career, its another opportunity to either pad his record, or get “Matt Serra’d” out of the P4P rankings.

Don’t get me wrong - I have nothing against Brett Rogers. The dude is huge, with powerful strikes and a lot of potential. If he continues to train full time at a good camp and fight reasonably matched opposition, he could be a very successful HW fighter. But as of right now, today, he is not on the same level as “The Last Emperor”. Fedor has been training martial art

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