#22 Virginia Tech (-12.5) 33 EAST CAROLINA 18
East Carolina is not a good team this season, as the Pirates have been out-gained 5.2 yards per play to 5.5 yppl despite facing an easy schedule of teams that would get out-gained 5.0 yppl to 5.7 yppl by an average team.
Virginia Tech has lost consecutive games to Georgia Tech and North Carolina, but the Hokies are still a good team that has out-gained their opponents 6.3 yppl to 4.8 yppl despite facing teams that would average 5.6 yppl and allow 4.9 yppl to an average team.
My math model strongly favors Virginia Tech in this game, giving the Hokies a 59.8% chance of covering at -12 1/2 points, but East Carolina applies to a very good 56-14-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation that has a 56% chance of winning at a fair line. The math is stronger than the situation in this case and I'll lean with the Hokies at -14 or less.
Read more on my website www.drbobsports.com
I have 6 NCAA Best Bets and 5 NCAA Strong Opinions this week, and 3 NFL Best Bets and 2 NFL Strong Opinion!
Read an article about me in the Wall Street Journal