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Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For VA TECH (-12.5) @ ECU

CHAPEL HILL, NC - SEPTEMBER 19:  Head coach Skip Holtz of the East Carolina Pirates watches on with his quarterback Patrick Pinkney #15 against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Kenan Stadium on September 19, 2009 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Robert StollCorrespondent INovember 5, 2009

#22 Virginia Tech (-12.5) 33 EAST CAROLINA 18

Over/Under Total: 51.5
04:45 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Nov-05

East Carolina is not a good team this season, as the Pirates have been out-gained 5.2 yards per play to 5.5 yppl despite facing an easy schedule of teams that would get out-gained 5.0 yppl to 5.7 yppl by an average team.

Virginia Tech has lost consecutive games to Georgia Tech and North Carolina, but the Hokies are still a good team that has out-gained their opponents 6.3 yppl to 4.8 yppl despite facing teams that would average 5.6 yppl and allow 4.9 yppl to an average team.

My math model strongly favors Virginia Tech in this game, giving the Hokies a 59.8% chance of covering at -12 1/2 points, but East Carolina applies to a very good 56-14-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation that has a 56% chance of winning at a fair line. The math is stronger than the situation in this case and I'll lean with the Hokies at -14 or less.

 

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