The Detroit Lions Need To Go 3-13 In Order To Avoid Financial Disaster

It's that time of year again. Yes, that magical time is upon us again when carols are sung and Lions-fans' heads everywhere are filled with dreams of wins or just high draft picks.

I'm referring of course to the NFL's mid-season point, or as it's known in Detroit, Wishing Day.

It's that day when you realize the Lions have absolutely no shot at making the playoffs and you officially start thinking about next season. 

Yes, the Lions are so bad, they make awful teams look good. This is not breaking news. If they continue on their current pace, they will finish 2-14 this season.

That will assuredly get this team a top-five draft pick. Great! Right?

High draft picks always come with high hopes and dreams. If you're a Lions fan, you know that those dreams are often shattered at some point during the first two seasons of that player's career.

But forget about that. There's another danger that comes with having high draft picks, and that's the high price-tag attached.

Calvin Johnson was taken No. 2 overall in 2007. He signed a six-year deal worth $64 million. In 2009, Matthew Stafford was taken No.1 overall. He signed a six-year deal worth $72 million.

That's $136 million tied up in two players for those of you keeping track.

At the current rate of inflation, a top five pick in 2010 will cost anywhere from $75 million to $80 million. That means the Lions will have at least $211 million tied up in just three players.

That amounts to $35 million worth of payroll per season. The NFL salary cap is currently at $127 million, meaning that one-quarter of the entire payroll will be spent on three players.

If all three of those players end up being superstars, you might say its money well spent. But what if even just one of them busts?

When one-quarter of your payroll is locked up in three players, that doesn't bode well for the rest of the team, particularly the defense, when at least two of those players are on offense.

And we wonder why Detroit always has scrubs playing in their secondary and defensive line.

So how to avoid this disaster from happening? Win.

Given that St. Louis, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee all currently have one or no wins, if Detroit wins at least three games, it should elevate the Lions above all of them, and more importantly, out of the top five picks.

It has nothing to do with progress, it has nothing to do with getting better as a team— because they aren't—it has everything to do with avoiding financial disaster.

Should the Lions manage to go 2-14, or worse, 1-15, which is entirely possible (it is the Lions after all), Detroit will have no option but to either trade down in the draft or trade the pick for another player.

Trading down would be the smarter move.

In fact, Detroit should consider trading down even if they are picking eighth or ninth. Picks 6-10 are more attractive to teams looking to trade up than picks 1-5 are because they carry less money, and thus less risk.

But for now, Lions fans, wish away, and keep looking forward towards draft day 2010 where hope springs eternal. Just be careful what you wish for, for it may come true, and with it another terrible decade.