Bowling Green 27 BUFFALO (-3.5) 26
Bowling Green's defense was good early in the season before their best defensive player, safety P.J. Mahone, was suspended. Mahone was Bowling Green's top tackler last season and led the team this season with 21 tackles in just 2 games. Mahone's has been reinstated and will play tonight. How much he plays is a question, but he's been practicing with the team the last two weeks and should be ready to take on close to his normal work load.
If that's the case then I like Bowling Green here in a mini upset, especially if Buffalo RB Ike Nduka is held out or limited with his injured ankle. Nduka leads the team in rushing and has averaged an impressive 6.5 ypr on his 88 carries this season while the other two Bulls' backs, who are also both questionable with ankle injuries, combine to average just 3.7 ypr on their 131 rushes.
My math model would favor Buffalo by 3 points if Nduka gets the 20 carries that he's averaged as a starter in recent weeks (when healthy) and if he plays at his normal level. Neither of those things is likely and I'd favor Bowling Green to win if Nduka doesn't play at all. The line value is on the side of Bowling Green in this one and I'll lean with the Falcons plus the points.
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