There are many scenarios by which Boise State would be chosen as one of the four 'at large' BCS teams this year, none of which would leave the Broncos holding their own destiny in their hands, unfortunately. And that's unfortunate (see my posting from last week).
To have any chance Boise will have to go undefeated and then needs help. Even if they get one or more of the following scenarios to go their way, there's still no guarantee of being chosen, but any or all of these would certainly help their case.
1. SEC gets only one team in with the winner of the SEC championship game being tagged with two losses (LSU, Alabama, or Florida) and the loser of the SEC championship game also with two losses. Outlook: Highly Unlikely
2. SEC gets only one team in if LSU beats 'Bama on Saturday in the regular season, loses to Florida in the SEC championship game and 'Bama also takes another loss in regular season, either @ Mississippi State or @ Auburn. Final records of SEC contenders in this scenario would be Florida, 12-0, LSU 10-2, Alabama 10-2. Outlook: Unlikely
3. Big 10 gets only one team in if Iowa wins out (beating Ohio State), and Ohio State beats Penn State this Saturday on the road. Outlook: Possible
4. USC takes another loss either @ ASU Saturday, or home vs Stanford, UCLA or Arizona. Outlook: Possible but not probable
5. Oregon wins out, Clemson, Virginia and BYU lose more than they win. This helps the Broncos' strength of schedule while hurts TCU's. TCU is ahead in the BCS by .0145 pts, but that's their largest margin over the course of the last two BCS rankings. Outlook: Possible
6. The best case scenario, of course, is a TCU loss @ home to Utah on 11/14. Outlook: Possible but not probable
There are obviously other 'meltdown' scenarios that you can conjure up about the six teams ahead of Boise in the BCS, but really these are the most salient. The major 'doomsday' scenario would be a Texas or Georgia Tech loss in their championship game but with Kansas State currently ahead in the Big 12 north and Boston College ahead in the ACC Atlantic, these are firmly in the 'highly, highly, unlikely' category.
Here's hoping Boise wins out and puts a bowl director or two on the hot seat come December.
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