I have read a lot of articles about what it will take to get Boise into the BCS. Frankly, I disagree with most of them.
To me, the answer to Boise's BCS dilemma is fairly simple.
Boise needs Colt McCoy and the University of Texas to win out.
I think it is as simple as that. They need their new BFF Colt to come through for them.
Exhibit 1: The BCS Bowl slot rules (from Wikipedia)
Consider the setup for BCS invites.
|Rose Bowl Game presented by Citi||Pac-10||Big Ten|
|Tostitos Fiesta Bowl||Big 12||At-Large|
|FedEx Orange Bowl||ACC||At-Large|
|Allstate Sugar Bowl||SEC||At-Large|
|BCS Championship Game||BCS No. 1||BCS No. 2|
"Even in the five BCS bowls, consideration is given to historic associations between the conferences and the bowl games themselves. Tie-ins still apply, unless a team obligated to a certain bowl game is selected for the BCS Championship Game. In that case, their slot is filled by an at-large school. Any bowl which loses a contracted team to the Championship Game gets first pick of the eligible at-large schools ."
Exhibit 2: The current BCS standings
RK TEAM RECORD
1. Florida 8-0
2. Texas 8-0
3. Alabama 8-0
4. Iowa 9-0
5. Cincinnati 8-0
6. TCU 8-0
7. Boise State 8-0
8. Oregon 7-1
9. LSU 7-1
10. Georgia Tech 8-1
11. Penn State 8-1
12. USC 6-2
13. Pittsburgh 7-1
14. Utah 7-1
15. Houston 7-1
How that might project out
Let's say that all of the undefeated schools win their remaining regular season games (because that is the assumption that most fans are working from).
It seems pretty likely in that scenario that Oregon's future wins over Stanford and Arizona would push them by Boise. There is a shot Penn State could pass Boise as well with a strong win over Ohio State.
Alabama would be the SEC West Champion and would play the SEC East Champion Florida. The loser would likely fall below Texas, so the national championship game would be the No. 1 SEC championship game winner vs. No. 2 Texas.
The Rose Bowl would be No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 3 Iowa.
The Orange Bowl would be No. 9 Georgia Tech vs. No. 6 Cincinnati.
The Sugar Bowl would take the No. 4 SEC Championship loser and would likely want No. 5 TCU due to proximity.
That would leave your advocate in among the BCS crowd, the Fiesta Bowl.
The Fiesta Bowl really likes Boise
The Fiesta Bowl is the only bowl likely to WANT No. 8 Boise.
They have seen Boise shock the nation, and Boise is comparatively close. With the size of the Boise fanbase, a trip to any other BCS bowl is a risky proposition for any other BCS bowl. Not so much for the Fiesta Bowl.
They won't take Boise over a higher ranked TCU team, but they would likely prefer Boise.
If Texas wins out, TCU would be the choice of the Sugar Bowl and the Fiesta would have two slots to fill.
The Fiesta Bowl would be losing its champion to the championship game. They could match Boise against another at-large team...No. 11 USC anyone?
USC also still has Arizona and Stanford on the schedule...
USC would have the fanbase somewhat close by to ensure a top turnout, while Boise would bring the star power of an undefeated snubbed team. It could be billed as a team that didn't deserve to be there (USC) vs. a team that had a legit title claim.
Fans of the BCS schools would want to see a USC team that didn't really do anything to earn a trip to the BCS this year, but is still super talented and well coached, destroy uppity Boise. Fans who despise the BCS would want to see Boise destroy a longtime BCS darling.
A great scenario, right?
But look what could happen if Texas gets upset in the Big 12 championship game.
|Rose Bowl Game presented by Citi||No. 7 Oregon||No. 10 Penn St.|
|Tostitos Fiesta Bowl||Big 12 Champ||No. 5 TCU|
|FedEx Orange Bowl||No. 9 G. Tech||No. 6 Cincy|
|Allstate Sugar Bowl||No. 3 SEC Loser||No. 4 Texas|
|BCS Championship Game||No. 1 SEC Champ||No. 2 Iowa|
I am sure the howling is starting already.
"The Rose Bowl would never pass over an Oregon-Boise rematch!"
Are you sure of that? Neither Boise nor Oregon is likely to excite fans in LA and fill the stadium.
Plus, Boise destroyed Oregon. That was not great TV.
It is entirely possible that Boise is just a team that matches up well against Oregon and that BSU is in the Ducks' heads.
What if the Rose Bowl invites Boise and the game is non-competitive? What if the fans turn the channel after the first quarter? Does the Rose Bowl want to broadcast a game that only interests fans in tiny Idaho?
Boise is also not likely to sell the kinds of tickets in LA that Penn State could, despite proximity. It is also not likely to have the viewership so important to generate the revenue these bowls need.
Citizens of Boise, you have your assignment...
Pray for Colt McCoy.