BCS Makes Any Remaining BYU Football Season Scenario Seem Bleak

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The bye week is here—or, as it is better known, the worst week of the year for any college football fan. 

While Brigham Young football fans will be depressed that there is no game this weekend, the bye week came at the right time for the BYU players.

The Cougars are fighting off nagging injuries, and they are also awaiting the return of the deep threat receiver McKay Jacobson. BYU will also use the bye week to make some needed changes in both offensive and defensive schemes. 

The bye week is just one example of an element in college football which is looked upon differently by players and fans. 

The remainder of the BYU season presents an interesting problem for BYU fans. What hope does the average BYU fan have for the rest of the season? 

Before the start of the season, there are three major goals for any BYU team. First, make a BCS bowl game. Second, win a conference championship. Third, beat Utah.

While many inside the BYU football program would argue that they put the conference championship ahead of the BCS berth, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which BYU could make a BCS game without winning the conference. So if the team makes the first goal, then they will surely have the second.

After two embarrassing home losses, not only are the football players left wondering what went wrong, but BYU fans are searching for answers as well. This season is it clear the BCS is out of reach for BYU, but the Cougars could still fulfill their second goal of a conference championship. 

For BYU fans, it might be counterproductive to cheer for a conference championship this season. Why? Under the current BCS system, it is more important for the conference to have some type of BCS representation in a bowl game than for BYU to win a mediocre conference. 

At 6-2, there is little for BYU fans to cheer about. Looking ahead, there is also little to no upside left in the season. Here are a few scenarios for how the rest of the season will play out for BYU.

Scenario One—BYU Loses to Utah

In this scenario it doesn’t matter what other teams do. BYU would still play in a bowl game, most definitely the San Diego County Poinsettia Bowl. Yet, the season is a waste from the point of view of any BYU football fan. 

Beating Utah is now an absolute requirement for any redemption this season for BYU.

Scenario Two—BYU Wins Out, TCU Loses to Utah

This is the scenario in which BYU would get a piece of the conference title. It really is like winning a battle and losing a war for any BYU fan. There would be joy over another conference title; however, it would mean the Mountain West Conference would fall further behind in its hopes of securing an automatic BCS bowl berth in the future. 

BYU would most likely not go to the Vegas Bowl. The Las Vegas Bowl has indicated that it wants to select a team other than BYU this season. Its reasoning is it doesn’t want the bowl game to turn into the BYU bowl (although, looking back at what BYU did for the Holiday Bowl, maybe having BYU and a sellout crowd every year is a good thing?). 

BYU would go to the San Diego County Poinsettia Bowl and face either a terrible Pac-10 team or a bad WAC team. A game where there would be nothing to prove, and everything to lose.

Scenario Three—BYU and TCU Win Out (Sadly, the Best-Case Scenario)

BYU fans will celebrate another victory over the Utes, but BYU will finish second in the conference. TCU will play in a BCS bowl game. The conference will get more national attention, and the entire conference will be pulling for a Horned Frog victory.

BYU will be stuck in either the Las Vegas Bowl or San Diego County Poinsettia Bowl. Both bowls would be played before Christmas, and both would most likely feature a Pac-10 team who is barely bowl eligible. 

In other words, the rest of the season for BYU, minus the Utah game, would be games in which there is nothing to gain. The Cougars would be favored in every other game they play this season, and they would have to win the games simply to save face. 

This is the best-case scenario because there is a slight glimmer of hope for a decent bowl game. If BYU goes to the Poinsettia Bowl they could be paired with a jaded Boise State team. 

This would occur if TCU is the only non-automatic BCS conference who is invited to a BCS game, and the Pac-10 get two BCS bowl berths. This would leave a slot open in the Poinsettia Bowl and leave Boise State looking for a place to play. The Broncos would make a second straight trip to San Diego and play the second best team in the Mountain West again.

The Poinsettia Bowl would be arguably the best non-BCS bowl game again for a second straight year, and both the WAC and MWC conference would benefit from the exposure. 

This game would also give BYU one final chance to gain redemption in the eyes of the national media, also demonstrating that the BCS was correct in taking TCU over Boise State.

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