Week 8 NFL Picks: Lay the Wood with the Packers

Home dogs did not stand a chance last week as San Diego, Indianapolis, and the New York Jets tromped all over their hosts for a combined margin of 104 points (34.7 avg).

In the NFC it was much of the same with Green Bay winning by 28 points over Cleveland and the New Orleans Saints putting up another 40-burger in Miami. New England cleaned up Tampa Bay in a neutral site game at Wembley.

The 46-34 final between the Saints and Dolphins makes it seem like a relatively close game but consider that the score was 24-3 Miami after 29 minutes and Sean Payton’s outfit just appears that much more powerful.

Starting with a QB Drew Brees rushing TD in the final seconds of the first half, these NFL Picks clearly tell that New Orleans went on a 43-3 run lasting 28 minutes to cement the win and become the first NFL team in history to score 45-plus points in four of its first six games.

New Orleans is home to the Atlanta Falcons in this week's Monday Night Football matchup and early betting has already pushed the line up to double-digits in favor of the Saints.

Speaking of Atlanta, the Falcons were one of two losers in our Bet Republic picks of the week last Sunday, neglecting to game plan for new Cowboys standout WR Miles Austin. We missed with the Sunday night total as well, but hit with the Packers and Steelers along with the "Under" in the Patriots-Bucs matchup.

Bet Republic picks were 3-2 overall and this week we’ve highlighted three sides and one Over/Under play.

Week 8 NFL PICKS

DENVER AT BALTIMORE
Line: Ravens -3.5
Over/Under: 41.5

Both teams are off a bye week and the Broncos are travelling to the east coast for an early body clock game. With Cincinnati and Pittsburgh resting this week there is an opportunity for the Ravens to pick up some ground in the tough AFC North, but it won’t come easy against a Denver team that is 6-0 for the first time since 1998.

The Broncos have also covered the spread in all six games.

Kyle Orton is getting it done for Denver but the defense has been the real story and this matchup could signify a changing of the guard from a Raven D considered the class of the conference for the past decade. We don’t see Baltimore handing over the belt without a fight.
BetRepublic's Pick: Take the "Under"


CLEVELAND AT CHICAGO
Line: Bears -13
Over/Under: 40

A subpar effort vs. Green Bay has sunk the Browns to 30th in scoring and Cleveland has now given up 23-plus points in six-of-seven contests. Chicago completed its only two-game road trip of the season by getting blown out in Cincinnati.

Chicago is 2-0 SU/ATS at home and has won five straight at Soldier Field going back to 2008. This is a lot of points but the Bears are highly motivated after back-to-back losses and have the weapons to rip this Browns team apart. The Browns are last in total defense and their best weapon is Joshua Cribbs, which Chicago can match pound for pound.
BetRepublic's Pick: Take the Bears


HOUSTON AT BUFFALO
Line: Texans -3.5
Over/Under: 41.5

Two teams yet to take their bye meet at Ralph Wilson Stadium, both going for a third straight win. Houston has put up impressive numbers but could enter this contest without the services of No. 1 WR Andre Johnson.

The Texans are 15-44 SU all-time away from home but are favored against a Bills offense ranked 24th in scoring. Buffalo also ranks low at defending the run but had little trouble stopping the Panthers run-game last week. The highlight for the Bills this year has been a ball-hawking secondary (13 INTs) led by rookie FS Jarius Byrd who has five interceptions in the past three games.

With QB Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, look for a good run-pass mix from Buffalo that produces enough points to keep the game close. The Texans have a road game at Indy on-deck, making this a look-ahead spot for them. We side with the home team.
BetRepublic's Pick: Take the Bills


MINNESOTA AT GREEN BAY
Line: Packers -3
Over/Under: 47

Brett Favre was nearly perfect when these teams met in Week 4, throwing three TDs, no picks and avoiding the sack, but with home field advantage the Packers will try to even the series.

Green Bay needs to bring more pressure and with a healthy secondary we can expect better coverage while the front seven closes the pocket. Adrian Peterson (ankle) demands attention but he wasn’t nearly as explosive last week at Pittsburgh and a 12th ranked Packer run-D held AP to just 55 yards in the first meeting.

Keeping Jared Allen upright is a priority for the O-line as Minnesota leads the league in sacks with 25 (eight vs. Green Bay). This game could come down to a turnover and the Packers have the edge in that department on both offense and defense. Expect a different result at Lambeau than what we saw in Round 1.
BetRepublic's Pick: Take the Packers