IDP Wednesday: Week 8

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IDP Wednesday:  Week 8
Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

By: Justin Curry (10/28/2009)

IDP Wednesday is dedicated to the stepchildren of the Fantasy Football world—The Individual Defensive Players. It's broken up into the following five parts:

1. Go and Get 'Em : This section is dedicated to players you should think about for the rest of the way.
2. The Favorable & Formidable Fives : This section lists the five best and worst teams allowing points to the DL, LB and DB positions this year.
3. Bye-Week Fill ers : This section is dedicated to the players who may not be great, but should have a solid, if not spectacular week because of the situation they're in this week.
4. IDP Opportunity : The average NFL game has 125 plays (average for one team is 62 offensive plays and 63 defensive plays). This section illustrates the top and bottom five teams that are above and below that average for both offense and defense showing you which IDP players are getting more opportunities to pad their stats.
5. Playoff Considerations : This section is devoted to what you need to be thinking about with the playoffs coming up.

Hope you enjoy, and please keep in mind that for the purposes of this article, I am excluding the top 20 linebackers, top 15 defensive backs, and top 10 defensive linemen as I'm assuming that they are already on someone's team.

Go and Get 'Em

DL

Previous Recommendations I Still Like:

Andre Carter, Elvis Dumervil, James Hall (hurt), Jimmy Wilkerson

This Week:

1. Jason Taylor (Miami Dolphins - DE)—Well, it's kind of a slow week when it comes to the DL position, but I'm going to try. Jason Taylor is the first recommendation. Thus far this season, he's averaging 2 solo tackles, 1 assist and 1 sack. Last week, he had 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, and 2 sacks. If you have Andre Carter or Jimmy Wilkerson and need a guy, he should fill in nicely as he gets the Jets this week, who are the third most favorable team for him to play at his position. Hopefully this week Sanchez will be a little more worried about Mr. Taylor and little less worried about eating that hot dog for you if you decide to play him.

2. Anthony Hargrove (New Orleans Saints - DT)—When Sedrick Ellis found himself on the sidelines with a knee injury, Hargrove made the most of his opportunity and ended the day with 4 solo tackles and 2 sacks. In comes Atlanta. Though they are usually pretty good at protecting Matt Ryan, last week was a disaster for them in Dallas, so the tide might be turning. If Ellis misses some time, Hargrove could be a very nice play for a little while.

LB

Previous Recommendations I Still Like:

Eric Barton, Keith Brooking (downgrade as Bobby Carpenter replaces him on 3rd downs now), Keith Bulluck, Brian Cushing, Andra Davis, Keith Ellison, Larry Foote, David Hawthorne, LeRoy Hill, Hunter Hillenmeyer, Thomas Howard, Calvin Pace, Mike Peterson, Paul Posluszney, Stephen Tulloch, Will Witherspoon

This Week:

1. Calvin Pace (New York Jets - OLB)—This is someone I mentioned last week (IDP Wednesday - Week 7 ). If you took my advice, picked him up, and put him in along with my Will Witherspoon recommendation ahead of him, you probably found yourself with the two highest producers in all of IDP last week. Let's keep this quick—you're welcome—now lets move on and keep this train rollin', freinds. Pace finished last week with 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 pass deflection. Bye-bye, Kris Jenkins. Hello, Pro-Bowl! Since returning from suspension, Pace is now averaging 6 solo tackles, 1 sack, and a little less than 1 forced fumble a game. No matter what scoring format your IDP league has, you need to get this man until he starts to slow down.

2. Tim Dobbins (San Diego Chargers - ILB)—Filling in for Kevin Burnett, who was injured, and not having to compete with Stephen Cooper for tackles, who was also on the sidelines, Dobbins found himself having a monster day. When it was finished, he had 11 solo tackles, 1 interception, and 1 pass deflection. With Burnett more than likely out again this week, Dobbins should have another good one against Oakland. Don't expect him to have 11 solo tackles again this week, however, as Stephen Cooper should be back in action to take some of those tackles away from him.

3. Bye-Week Lineback ers (Cincinnati , Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington )—By Week 7, many struggling fantasy teams are just trying to get a win this week. When this happens, their judgement starts to get clouded and they will sometimes irrational things. If someone in your league becomes desperate and drops one of these guys because they need space to fill their roster and win vs. worrying about keeping someone good on a bye, grab these guys faster than DeSean Jackson can get by a linebacker from Washington on a reverse. In order of who you should get first—London Fletcher, James Harrison, Barrett Ruud, Jerod Mayo.

Other LB Notes:

1. Hunter Hillenmeyer (Chicago Bears - SLB)—Hillenmeyer returned last week, but is now playing SLB.
2. Justin Durant (Jacksonville Jaguars - MLB)—Should be ready to go after his bye this week. No word yet on if he'll play this week, though, so make sure to stay updated on his status.
3. Ricky Brown (Oakland Raiders - SLB)—John Alston replaced Brown last week.
4. Will Witherspoon (Philadelphia Eagles - MLB) - Now the new MLB for Philadelphia and had a monster game against the Redskins this past week.
5. Kaluka Maiava (Cleveland Browns - ILB)—Maiava seems to be the guy that is taking over for D'Qwell Jackson, but I still think Eric Barton is the best long term option there.
6. David Hawthorne (Seattle Seahawks - MLB)—Potential stud is taking over for Lofa Tatupu this week. Either stash him on your bench or monitor what he does this week.
7. LeRoy Hill (Seattle Seahawks - WLB)—The tackle machine comes back this week. Monitor Hawthorne, but if he struggles, Hill will be the one you want in Seattle long term.

DB

Previous Recommendations I Still Like:

Jordan Babineaux, Atari Bigby, Tyvon Branch, C.C. Brown, Mike Brown, Nate Clements, Erik Coleman, Reed Doughty, Louis Delmas, Abram Elam, Chris Harris, Sabby Piscitelli, Bernard Pollard, Bob Sanders, Donte Whitner (Injured)/George Wilson

This Week:

1. Thomas DeCoud (Atlanta Falcons - FS)—Simply put, if you've watched the Falcons play this year, you've noticed him because he has been everywhere making plays. If you take out the first game of this year, DeCoud is averaging 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 pass deflection, and has a sack and 2 interceptions. If your DBs aren't producing these kinds of numbers, DeCoud is the DB for you.

2. Michael Lewis (San Francisco 49ers - SS)—According to him, he's going to play this week. If that's the case, you might want to pick him up as he's proven in the past he can be a Top 10 DB. He's had a lot of injury problems this year and is one concussion away from being shutdown for the year, but he still has the potential to be very good for the second half of the season if that doesn't happen.

3. Gerald Sensabaugh (Dallas Cowboys - SS)—Though very good, Sensabaugh has been flying under the radar because of the game he was hurt in Denver and the game he missed in Kansas City. If you take out those two games, he's averaging 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, and a pass deflection. Though those aren't great numbers, I think they will improve over the second half of the season and he's someone to monitor at the very least.

Other DB Notes:

1. Antoine Winfield (Minnesota Vikings - CB)—Out Indefinitely—Benny Sapp did alright, but not great in his absence.
2. Roy Williams (Cincinnati Bengals - SS)—Bye this week, but should be back after that.

Favorable & Formidable Fives

This section lists the five best and worst teams allowing points to the DL, LB and DB positions this year.

Favorable (Ordered w/ Best Team to Play First)

Rank

DL

LB

DB

 

 

 

 

 

1

Green Bay

Miami

New York Jets

 

 

 

 

 

2

Miami

Jacksonville

New Orleans

 

 

 

 

 

3

New York Jets

Cincinnati

Dallas

 

 

 

 

 

4

Buffalo

New Orleans

Pittsburgh

 

 

 

 

 

5

Seattle

New England

NY Giants

 

 

 

 

 


Formidable (Ordered w/ Worst Team to Play First)

Rank

DL

LB

DB

1

Denver

Dallas

San Francisco

2

Dallas

Tampa Bay

Oakland

3

Cincinnati

Green Bay

Cleveland

4

Atlanta

Baltimore

Philadelphia

5

Indianapolis

Seattle

Green Bay


Bye-Week Fillers (Good for This Week)

Byes Week 8: Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington

Thus far this year, if you take out the bye-week recommendations that were benched after my original Wednesday posting (2 players) and players that were injured in the first half and didn't return (2 players), here are my averages for each position so far:

Using My Preferred IDP Scoring System

Solo

Assists

Sack

Int

FF

PD

2

1

4

4

3

2


Avg. Return for Bye-Week Filler Positions I've Recommended

Position

Point Total That Week

LB

16

DB

14

DL

7


Week 8 Recommendations

DL

1. Jason Taylor (Miami Dolphins - DE)—Taylor should see a lot of opportunities against a Jets team that has been very susceptible to opposing DEs this year.

2. Kyle Vanden Bosch (Tennessee Titans - DE)—If he's ever going to be the Vanden Bosch of old, this is the week he will do it. He will be facing the Jaguars who are the overall number two team in league when considering points given up to a DE. Put him in...I am.

LB

1. Daryl Smith (Jacksonville Jaguars - ILB)—With Justin Durant's injury, Smith should be the best option for Jacksonville this week. Last time he played Tennessee, he had 6 solos. I expect this or a little better when considering who he'll be competing with for tackles this week. He should continue his good season and have a very good day.

2. Will Witherspoon (Philadelphia Eagles - MLB)—Though it won't be as good as last week, he should continue to be hot with the New York Giants coming into town. Placing in the Top 10 this year, the Giants are one of the better teams in the league for your MLB to play.

3. Nick Roach (Chicago Bears - MLB)—Roach has been very productive in place of Brian Urlacher this year. With them playing Cleveland this week, that trend should continue.

DB

1. George Wilson (Buffalo Bills - SS)—If Whitner and Scott can't go again this week, keep riding this gravy train like I have been. Over the last four weeks, Wilson is averaging 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, has 2 sacks, 2 interceptions and 2 pass deflections. Houston comes in this week and though they are average at awarding safeties points, Wilson should still be solid if he plays. Obviously, monitor the Whitner and Scott statuses closely, though. If either plays, they will replace Wilson and he will be on the bench.

2. Thomas DeCoud (Atlanta Falcons - FS)—As I mentioned earlier, DeCoud has been everywhere making plays this year for the Falcons. With them going to New Orleans and playing the Saints this week, I don't see this trend ending at least for one more week.

3. Jordan Babineaux (Seattle Seahawks - FS)—With Seattle coming in to play the Cowboys and the Cowboys finding a real threat in Miles Austin, Babineaux should be racking up the tackles all day. Put him in with confidence.

IDP Opportunity

As mentioned at the beginning of this post, these four charts are to illustrate which players are actually getting more opportunities to fill up their stat sheet just because they are on a certain team.

Offensively, what can be gained from these first two charts along with the 'Favorable & Formidable Fives' section is that you want your safeties to go up against New England, New Orleans, and Seattle. You want your linebackers to go up against Cleveland, New England, Miami, and Indianapolis. If you have a DB going up against Oakland—bench him.

As far as the defensive play portion (bottom two charts), if one of your IDPers plays on Buffalo, Cleveland or Oakland, this is primarily why they've been doing so well. If one of your IDPers plays for Miami or Carolina and his name isn't Thomas Davis, this is primarily why he hasn't. Please adjust your rosters accordingly.

Most Amount of Offensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.5)

Team

Avg.

Pass

Run

New England

70

41

28

Miami

68

30

36

New Orleans

68

33

34

Seattle

66

38

26

New York Giants

66

32

32


Least Amount of Offensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.5)

Team

Avg.

Pass

Run

Oakland

54

26

26

San Francisco

57

30

24

Washington

59

32

24

Chicago

59

35

22

Cleveland

59

30

26


Most Amount of Defensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.7)

Team

Avg.

Pass

Run

Buffalo

70

35

33

Cleveland

69

33

35

Oakland

68

29

37

St. Louis

65

32

32

Kansas City

64

33

30


Least Amount of Defensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.7)

Team

Avg.

Pass

Run

Miami

56

30

23

Carolina

58

25

30

Denver

60

32

24

Baltimore

60

31

26

Detroit

60

33

24


Playoff Considerations

Well, the plan was to come up with this awesome little chart that told you who had the best/worst fantasy playoff SOS (Strength of Schedule) for this year, but the Fantasy Football Librarian recommended the site below by FFToolbox.com and how do you beat perfection?

FFToolbox.com's SOS Application

Not quite sure the methodology behind it and would like to see it broken out into DE, ILB, OLB, SS, FS, & CB, but I have a feeling those will be coming in the future. With that said, seriously, is there a better SOS fantasy football tool on the web?! If there is, I haven't found it yet.

As the great Brian Collins once said, "Boom goes the dynamite."  Until next week, my IDP peeps!!!

I'm out!

Justin Curry

Don't forget, you can read all of Justin Curry's 'IDP Wednesday' posts this year at NumbersAndGuts.com .

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