Thoughts on the 2009 World Series

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The two best teams in baseball, most home runs and runs scored in each league, plus one stat which surprised me: both the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies led their leagues in stolen base percentage, with each having an over 80 percent success rate.

Power and speed, plus a lethal starting pitcher at the top of the rotation for both teams.

The Yankees will win in five games, after taking a 3-0 series lead.

Starting Pitching

Expect both CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee to go in Games One, Four and Seven, if necessary. If the Yankees are up 3-0, then CC will not go Game Four. There is no way that Charlie Manuel throws Joe Blanton in a must-win situation, as Blanton has terrible numbers against the Yankees in his career, a 0-3 record and over 8.00 ERA.

The weather in Game One can affect a "feel" pitcher like Lee; look for the Yankees to see if he is hitting his spots early on. If he is not, the Yankees will force Lee to come over the plate with his pitches, where it will be light-up city. When Lee struggled over a couple starts in Philadelphia, he said it was because "he wasn't locating his fastball" and he got knocked around.

It will happen again in Game One.

Same thing with Pedro Martinez starting in Game Two. The Yankees will be patient with his junk stuff, and Pedro may be effective one time through the lineup. The Yankees will begin to lay off the off-speed stuff and force Pedro to come over the middle, where he is not the same Pedro that pitched at the Stadium in big games. I was there in Game Seven of the 2003 ALCS, when Martinez was masterful until the end.

Not this year. He does not have the power stuff to alleviate all the Yankee big bats.

Pettitte will not go on three days rest, as he has not done that in about three seasons. Unlike the ALCS, Gaudin will get more than a token inning on the mound.

Look for Joe Girardi to go with Sabathia in Game Four if the Yankees are up or down 2-1, but if they take a 3-0 series lead, look for Chad Gaudin to pitch Game Four and CC to come back on normal rest in a Game Five, if necessary. Then it would be Burnett in Game 6 and CC and Pettitte both available for a Game Seven.

The Yankee starting pitching will dominate the Phillies lineup and I expect the Yankees to take a 3-0 lead in the series.

Power Lineups

Both teams have crushed the ball this year, and the team that wins the World Series will do it with slugging. Do not look for the small ball to come into play like it did for the Yankees in the ALCS. Unlike the Los Angeles Angels, who provided no power throughout the ALCS, the Phillies can put up big innings in a hurry, so look for the Yankees to "let their players play" and for Girardi to go for the big innings.

Alex Rodriguez will continue to rake and Mark Teixeira will have a big series, as he started to hit late in the ALCS and has great numbers in his career against both Lee and Cole Hamels.

The Yankees starting pitching will, for the most part, contain the Phillies' vaunted lineup. Ryan Howard has had a great postseason thus far, but does not have good numbers against the Yankees' top three starters. The two lefties in Sabathia and Andy Pettitte will neutralize the lefty bats of Howard, Chase Utley, and Raul Ibanez.

Look for Jayson Werth to have a pretty good series, as he is hot right now and has very good power to right field, great in both Yankee Stadium and Citizen's Bank Park. Jimmy Rollins (more on him later) and Shane Victorino will get their on base opportunities, but will not score much, as the big lefty boppers will falter.

Speaking of Werth, he is only a Phillie player BECAUSE of AJ Burnett. How?

In 2005, Burnett hit Werth (then a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers) in the wrist with a pitch, breaking it. Werth was not a good player in 2005 and missed most of 2006 with various wrist aliments. After two terrible years in LA, the Dodgers released Werth, who was then signed by Phillies GM Pat Gillick, who drafted Werth when Gillick ran the Toronto Blue Jays

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