The Octagon is heading back to the mother country tomorrow afternoon with a card that might be light on sizzle, but should deliver enough steak to keep most fans happy. The card has been snake bit with fighters dropping out due to injury left and right, and the main event has changed a few times, but in the end it looks like we're in for a pretty good card.
Antoni Hardonk vs Eddie Sanchez
This is a weird fight in that I don't feel either of these guys are at a level where they should be in the UFC right now. Hardonk is a one dimensional striker who has been utterly lost every time someone has taken him down. That being said, if he's able to keep a fight standing, he does have one punch/kick KO power. This might be a fight where he gets to show that as Sanchez has shown a willingness to bang with strikers, even when he shouldn't. He's got a good chin, but he also has a better all around game than Hardonk. I look for an early takedown after he tastes some of Hardonk's power, then he'll pound out a stoppage.
Winner: Sanchez, TKO, Round 1
Paul Taylor vs Jess Liaudin
Taylor has lost twice in the Octagon, but he's been pretty damned exciting in doing so. He's shown some good power in his fists and a decent chin, so he's the kind of guy who has shot against anyone who's not the elite. Since Liaudin is certainly not one of the elite at 170, he definitely has a chance in this one. Liaudin will likely be looking for the submission early as I don't think he has the power to take Taylor out standing, while Taylor will be looking to stay on his feet and pound on Liaudin to set up the KO. If his sprawl is good, Taylor should be able to pull it out here.
Winner: Taylor, TKO, Round 2
Banha Cane vs Jason Lambert
I really didn't get to see enough of Cane in his UFC debut to see what he's got, but an 7-0 record before that DQ loss with 6 TKO's means he has the requisite skills to handle the glassy chinned Lambert on their feet. The question will be whether or not Cane will be able to handle Lambert's wrestling and ground and pound to have a chance at the KO. After losing all the momentum he had from the Babalu win, I'd look for a slightly more cautious Lambert to ground the fight and methodically pound out a win.
Winner: Lambert, Decision
Roan Carneiro vs Kevin Burns
I don't know much about Burns other than he fought less than a month ago, but I do know that I love to watch Carneiro fight. His jiu jitsu is great and his stand up is good enough to set everything else up. Newcomers to the cage are always a bit of a wildcard, but as long as Carneiro doesn't take Burns lightly, he should be ok.
Winner: Carneiro, Submission, Round 2
Matt Wiman vs Thiago Tavares
I'll just be blunt about this one and say that I don't see any way at all that Wiman pulls this out. He's a talented mid-level fighter, and could probably be a champion in something like EliteXC, but Tavares is a beast and a legit threat to anyone not named BJ Penn at 155 in the UFC. Wiman doesn't have anywhere near the wrestling skills that Tyson Griffin used to frustrate the hell out of Tavares, so I'd look for a nice submission win for the Brazillian in this one.
Winner: Tavares, Submission, Round 1
Jorge Rivera vs Martin Kampmann
I'm really looking forward to this fight as it should answer a lot of questions about both fighters. Rivera looked like a world beater against Kendall Grove, but is that because he's re-dedicated himself to the sport or because Grove didn't really show up? As for Kampman, it's his first fight back after his long injury layoff, so will the rust show or has working with Xtreme Couture sharpened him up? This is going to be a stand up war as both guys have confidence in both their striking and chins, but I give the edge to Kampmann. He was on the verge of contending at 185 before the injury, and starts the road back here.
Winner: Kampmann, TKO, Round 3
Fabricio Werdum vs Brandon Vera
A year ago, Vera was essentially the uncrowned UFC champ and considered the future of the division. Another 5 months of a contract holdout, followed by a broken hand and a loss to Tim Sylvia really took the bloom of his rose, but if you think Vera is anything less than super talented, you're wrong. He's a dynamic striker with an underrated ground game who can beat anyone in either the heavyweight or light heavyweight division. For his part, Werdum looked good in beating Gonzaga, but was it more of a case of an inconsistent Gonazaga rather than a dominating Werdum? This should be an exciting fight as both guys are comfortable in all aspects of the fight game, but I think Vera's wrestling may come into play here more than it has in his other fights as he uses it to set up some heavy hands and knees.
Winner: Vera, TKO, Round 2
Nate Marquardt vs Thales Leites
Leites is good. Marquardt is VERY good. (I wanted to say "Great", but I decided that was just too cheesy.) I don't see Leites taking out Marquardt on their feet as he isn't that big a puncher, but if they go to the ground - where Leites usually has the advantage - he's screwed. Marquardt is a wiz on the ground. If you like ground fighitng, I have a feeling you're going to enjoy all three rounds of this one.
Winner: Marquardt, Decision
Marcus Davis vs Mike Swick
As I'm doing this preview, I'm getting more and more interested in this card. This is another fight that may not be main event quality, but it sure is intriguing. After giving in to the general consensus and dropping down to 170, Swick went out and laid an egg against Josh Burkman in one of the more disappointing fights in recent memory. Doing the cut for a second time and the added incentive of needing to put in a good showing should make for a good action fight, as Davis will be more than willing to oblige. He's on a ridiculous win streak right now, and he finally gets a chance to test himself against a higher level of competition. As long as this isn't a borefest, the winner here can make a case for being a top 10 welterweight in the UFC right now. And for the record, the quarter is picking the winner here.
Winner: Davis, TKO, Round 3
Michael Bisping vs Jason Day
Day made a nice debut in Montreal, and stepped up to take this fight just a few weeks ago after the Chris Leben mess. Nice of him to take one for the team, but I'm afraid my fellow Canuck is going to take it on the chin here. The big question will be whether or not Bisping has the power to put Day out when he puts one on his chin. He looked aggressive against Charles McCarthy, but he landed a lot of big blows that didn't seem to do a lot of damage. Even though this is his second fight at 185, it will be the first time we really see how good he'll be at the weight.
Winner: Bisping, Decision
Matt Hughes vs Thiago Alves
There's two ways to look at this one. First, Matt Hughes is the second best 170lber in the world, and a class above everyone not named GSP. Secondly, Hughes is an aging, over confident fighter who really hasn't looked good in two years (in the Gracie fight). And here's the crazy thing - I subscribe to theory #2 (Penn beat him up for two rounds, GSP schooled him twice and he looked sloppy against Lytle) and I still think he's going to win this fight. Alves is a dynamic striker, and he's coming off a big win, but I don't think he's strong enough to deal with Hughes' wrestling and ground and pound. As long as Hughes doesn't decide that he can kick box with Alves, he should be able to get out of the fight without too much damage.
*Just as I was writing this, news broke that Alves has missed the 170lb weight limit, and the fight will now be a catch weight bout at 174lbs. It's not the first time that Alves has had problems making weight, but really shouldn't effect the outcome here. Either he comes in emaciated from trying to make weight and will be sluggish, or he knew he couldn't make weight and didn't try too hard. Since Hughes usually fights 10-15lbs heavier than he weighs in at, he won't be at any real disadvantage here.*
Winner: Hughes, TKO, Round 2
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4 months ago
I personally hope Hughes wins, so he can fight the Matt Serra who is a bigger bonehead grudge match and retire. He is from what I call the second generation of MMA fighters. The guys that came in just as the UFC started to turn things around and were rewarded for their loyalty. Him, Chuck, Rich, even Tito, look at them now.
Im not saying the sport is passing Matt by, but the sport is passing him by. Gone are the days where you could duck under the first punch a guy threw, pick him up, slam him, and pound him out in every match. MMA is evolving too much and too fast to be successful that way at the top tiers of the sport.
4 months ago
What a bush league travis lutter-esque showing by alves at the weigh ins ... 4 pounds over. On the bright side it's not a title match but give me a break alves. Dana is probably cursing up a storm today and rightfully so. This fight card has been nothing but a huge headache for him and joe silva for months.
Werdum has never been knocked out before. You think Vera will be the first? I don't necessarily think so. I think Vera will win too but I think he will most likely grind out a decision, which is uncommon for him.
4 months ago
I really think that Vera has the ability to KO just about anyone. The man has nasty, nasty knees. With Werdum getting more and more confident with his fists I think there's a good chance that he might leave himself open for some shots, if that makes sense to you. On top of that, I think Vera's wrestling is good enough to keep the fight standing and even if Werdum does score the takedown, Vera's jiu jitsu should be good enough to stiffle Werdum and force the stand up.
The longer the fight on their feet, the more likely Werdum is taking a nap.
4 months ago
Marcus Davis is already a top ten welterweight in the UFC. I don't see how you can put him any lower than 6 or 7 at the worst right now. Anyways, pretty good article.
4 months ago
I'd say the welterweights go GSP, Fitch, Hughes, Koscheck, Serra, Sanchez, Alves, Parisyan...and then I guess you would have to look at Davis around 9th or so.
Maybe I should have said "breaking into the upper echelon of UFC welterweights."
from 4 months ago
Give me a freaking break. Serra is not a top ten welterweight. He has one great win, but he would lose to all of those guys badly due to his size disadvantage. And although Davis might not have earned it yet, I'll take him over Sanchez too. And I think it's only a matter of time before he passes most of those other guys...
from 4 months ago
Why would you even put Sanchez and Koscheck on the list. Sanchez was at one time a promising rising star, but since then who has he beat. And as far as Koscheck goes all he does is take someone down and lay on them I think he fights unknown fighters most of the time and doesn't even make it on the damn program, but I am thankful for that not having to see his latest decision win by laying on top of the guy the whole time. I wish next time either of them fought someone would call the cops on them to get them out of the octagon. Neither are exciting nor well rounded. Koscheck doesn't even have a good ground and pound game. What the hell good is a wrestler that has no submission skill, no stand up, and no ground and pound. Undercard time filler that is all he is, was, and can ever hope to be.
4 months ago
If you put Serra in with Davis, I'm probably leaning towards Serra right now. That's not a knock against Davis at all, it's just that until he beats some higher level opponents I really don't know how good he is. If/how he beats Swick will say a lot about where he really is right now.
from 4 months ago
So you think Serra can submit Davis off his back (if he can even get to the ground)? Davis has better boxing and power in his hands. And Davis is physically MUCH bigger and much stronger with equal (doubtful) or superior wrestling. You don't make any sense to me. Sure Serra has a puncher's chance, but that's about it.
from 4 months ago
First off, Serra's got a tough chin. Davis has good hands, but again, I haven't seen him punch any high level fighters. Serra's been in the cage with some very good fighters and held his own, so I know what you get with him.
I can't believe I'm defending Serra...the guy annoys the hell out of me. But like I said, until Davis beats someone with a higher skill level (such as Swick) you can't really say how good he really is.
4 months ago
To Robert: won't you feel chagrinned when Serrs beats Hughes and his wonderous record?
from 4 months ago
Serra won't beat Hughes. I don't know why there are so many people that even want to see that horribly matched up fight in the first place. Serra's only chance is subbing Hughes after he's taken down (very unlikely).
4 months ago
The fights will be in England...if the Bisping fight goes to a decision he will win...he got dominated his at the last UFC in England and came away with a Unanimous decision. I personally will not watch Bisping fight in England, because it really doesn't matter. I would love to see him get knocked out, but I will only see that if they replay it on unleashed and I know the outcome already.
from 4 months ago
It was a bad decision, but it wasn't corrupt. Go back and watch that fight again. If you look at as three individual rounds as opposed to as a whole, Bisping won the third, lost the first and the second is tight. Depends on which way you want to score it. As far as it being a "fight" goes, he got his ass handed to him. As far as being a three round "contest", it's not as outrageous as a lot of people say.
Your earlier comments about Sanchez and Koscheck are a bit off. Koscheck has shown some very good stand up and submission defense in his last few fights, and to say he's not a top welterweight is crazy. GSP couldn't finish him, and other than that he hasn't lost in a while. As for Sanchez, he was sick and lost to Koscheck, then put on an exciting fight against FItch. He belongs at the top end of the welterweights as well.
from 4 months ago
I have watched the fight more than once with Bisping. I personally don't see how he could have even won any round. He was squirming around on his back like 75% of the fight and Hammill was actually working. It was completely corrupt...That was the most corrupt decision I have ever seen and I am a boxing fan. He had good standup against Dustin Hazelett a guy where of 10 wins 7 are by submission. But he really showed his standup against a guy with no standup ability...Koscheck is a joke, a punk and a complete waste of tv time with him on the program. I would love to see his UFC career ended with a merciless beatdown. Only because then I would not have to see him lay on top of snyone anymore. He is by far the most boring fighter I've ever seen and maybe he should be boring fans of KoC or something. That way I get most of those on DVD instead of watching them on PPV and I can always use the skip button. I don't wish a serious injury upon him, because I don't know him as a person, but I would like to see him get beat down bad and fired for just being boring and more overrated than Kimbo slice.
4 months ago
3-8 overall....ouch.
from 4 months ago
Well, the Vera stoppage was very early. Nonetheless props to Werdum for mounting and giving the ref potential to stop the fight int he first place. The Kevin Burns win is insane. Blue belt submitting black belt world champion. The Marquardt fight was unpredictable as hell too. And I'm sad that Davis lost. :|
At least Kampmann won. He's my man.
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