UFC 104 and DREAM.12 Predictions and Tips

College projects and MMA predictions never mix...nonetheless, I'm back, and predicting DREAM.12 and UFC 104 in the same write up, since they're just a few hours apart anyway.

All lines taken from Bodog, all lines given as decimals: 1.55 means that for every 1.00 you place, 0.55 will be your profit, in addition to your original 1.00.

UFC 104

Anthony "Rumble" Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida
(80 kg/176 lbs)

Anthony Johnson
7-2-0

USA

+Dangerous KO power
+Good wrestler
+Athleticism and strength

-Questionable grappling skill

Yoshiyuki Yoshida
11-3-0

Japan

+Fourth-degree black belt Judoka
+Decent submissions
+Good ground and pound

-Beginner striking
-Uncertain how damaged chin might be from previous KO loss

Analysis:

I would guess that Johnson's plan will be identical to the one Koscheck used to send Yoshida to the hospital, and I'm guessing he has the power to do it.

One thing that Koscheck has over Johnson is submission knowledge, as evidenced when Johnson was subbed by Rich Clementi, so look for the American to keep it off the ground.

I would back him to succeed in that, and if Yoshida is unable to use his Judo, Johnson should have the fight, as Yoshida's striking was never considered threatening.

My Take:

Johnson by KO, Round 1. I think he'll employ the Koscheck strategy and finish Yoshida early.

Johnson is at 1.20 while Yoshida is at 4.25, but I'd rather combine Johnson with later favorites.

Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs. Spencer "King" Fisher
(155 lbs/70 kg)

Joe Stevenson
30-10-0

USA

+Good grappler and a Jiu Jitsu black belt; has an extremely dangerous guillotine
+Decent striker
+Fights at a tenacious pace
+Judo black belt

-Not a KO artist
-One dimensional striking

Spencer Fisher
23-4-0

USA

+Hard hitting, versatile striker
+Very aggressive striker
+Decent grappling knowledge and has never been subbed

-Not a great wrestler

Analysis:

Pretty even matchup here. Stevenson has a significant advantage on the ground, but I feel that Fisher has an edge striking.

Fisher is certainly the more versatile striker than Stevenson, who just boxes for the most part, whereas Fisher takes advantage of kicks and knees.

Although Fisher is but a Jiu Jitsu purple belt, he has never been submitted, and I would not expect Stevenson to pull it off. I could however, see Fisher getting controlled on the ground and losing a decision.

My Take:

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