#14 Oklahoma St. (-9.5) 25 BAYLOR 21
Baylor is hurting offensively without star RB Jay Finley, who is listed as questionable this week after missing most of the last 4 1/2 games. Without a good rushing attack the Bears have to rely too much on interception prone backup quarterback Blake Szymanski, who has thrown 4 interceptions on just 45 passes this season and 29 picks on 634 career pass attempts (4.6%).
However, Baylor still has a solid defense and Oklahoma State's offense has been just mediocre this season, averaging 5.7 yppl in 5 games against division 1A opponents that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team.
My math model favors Oklahoma State by just 7 points and Baylor applies to a 95-47-2 ATS underdog bounce-back situation this week that is based on last week's loss at Iowa State. I like Baylor plus the points.
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