#11 Georgia Tech (-5.5) 28 VIRGINIA 24
Virginia is once again rebounding from a horrible start to their season with a job saving win streak for coach Al Groh. The Cavs have won 3 consecutive games and covered in 4 straight since losing their opener to William & Mary and getting blown out by TCU. Virginia is 0.6 yppl worse than average offensively with quarterback Jameel Sewell at the helm, but the Cavs are 0.9 yppl better than average defensively, allowing just 4.3 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team.
That unit is particularly good at pass defense, which won't help them that much against a run heavy Georgia Tech offense, but they should do a decent job of containing a very good Yellow Jackets' attack that has averaged 6.5 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl to an average team).
Virginia's offense also should perform at a good level against a bad Tech defense that's given up 6.3 yppl this season to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team. My math model favors Georgia Tech by just 4 points and the Cavs also apply to a very good 50-10-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation.
My only concern is Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson's habit of covering the spread, as Johnson's teams are 52-32-2 ATS in his career and a perfect 18-0 ATS in road or neutral games when facing a team with a win percentage of less than .550 and not laying 10 points or more. The team trend and the general situation favoring Virginia cancel each other out, which leaves me with Georgia Tech by 4 points based on the math.
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