Central Mich (-8.5) 39 BOWLING GREEN 27
Central Michigan is the class of the Mid American Conference this year and Bowling Green is not likely to get in their way even with the situation being in the Falcons' favor. The Chippewas have won 6 consecutive games since losing at Arizona in their opener and their 6-1 ATS record suggests that they could still be overrated. Central Michigan's offense is led by dynamic quarterback Dan LeFevour, who is perhaps the nation's premier dual threat quarterback, and the Chippewas have been 0.9 yards per play better than average offensively this season (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team).
Bowling Green started the season looking pretty solid on defense but their best defensive player, SS P.J. Mahone, was suspended from the team after just 2 games and the defense has been horrible ever since. Mahone led the Falcons in tackles last season and was leading them again after 2 games with 21 stops, which is still good enough for 7th on the team despite missing 5 games. Without Mahone, the Falcons have allowed 7.1 yppl in 5 games against teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team. Central Michigan has faced one other horrible defense and the Chippewas scored 56 points on 522 yards at 8.7 yppl in that game against Eastern Michigan.
Bowling Green, meanwhile, has faced just one good offense this season and the Falcons gave up 49 points at 9.2 yppl in that game to Boise State. Needless to say, Central Michigan should score a good number of points in this game.
Bowling Green is decent offensively, averaging 5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, and Central Michigan is just average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl), but average production isn't going to be enough for Bowling Green to keep up with what their defense allows. My math model gives Central Michigan a 57.6% chance of covering at -8 1/2 points in this game but the Chippewas apply to a negative 42-102-2 ATS situation that would give Bowling Green a 55% chance of covering at a fair line.
The line in this game, of course, isn't fair and I'll side with Central Michigan even with the negative situation.
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