Marshall Football logoMarshall Football

Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For MARSHALL (-7) Vs. UAB

HOUSTON - NOVEMBER 17: Darius Marshall #5 of the Marshall Thundering Herd carries the ball during the game with the Houston Cougars at Robertson Stadium November 17, 2007 in Houston, Texas. Houston won 35-28. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
Robert StollCorrespondent IOctober 23, 2009

MARSHALL (-7.0) 32 UAB 26

Over/Under Total: 53.0
09:00 AM Pacific Time Saturday, Oct-24

My math model gives Marshall a 54% chance to cover at -7 points, but UAB applies to a very good 91-35-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that plays on underdogs that will be able to run the ball well and the Blazers' great ground game (6.6 yards per rushing play) led by running quarterback Joe Webb will be able to do that against a sub-par Marshall defense that's given up 5.8 yprp this season.

A lot of that is because of one game (467 rushing yards at 10.2 yprp against Virginia Tech), but the Thundering Herd are bad against the run even if you tack that game out. The indicator that favors UAB has a 55% chance of winning at a fair line, so this game is a toss-up with the math going the other way.

Read more on my website

I have 5 NCAA Best Bets and 6 NCAA Strong Opinions this week, and 2 NFL Best Bets and 3 NFL Strong Opinion!

Read an article about me in the Wall Street Journal

Follow me on Facebook and Twitter for updates on Best Bet releases

Where can I comment?

Stay on your game

Latest news, insights, and forecasts on your teams across leagues.

Choose Teams
Get it on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Real-time news for your teams right on your mobile device.

Copyright © 2017 Bleacher Report, Inc. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved. is part of Bleacher Report – Turner Sports Network, part of the Turner Sports and Entertainment Network. Certain photos copyright © 2017 Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Getty Images is strictly prohibited. AdChoices