MARSHALL (-7.0) 32 UAB 26
My math model gives Marshall a 54% chance to cover at -7 points, but UAB applies to a very good 91-35-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that plays on underdogs that will be able to run the ball well and the Blazers' great ground game (6.6 yards per rushing play) led by running quarterback Joe Webb will be able to do that against a sub-par Marshall defense that's given up 5.8 yprp this season.
A lot of that is because of one game (467 rushing yards at 10.2 yprp against Virginia Tech), but the Thundering Herd are bad against the run even if you tack that game out. The indicator that favors UAB has a 55% chance of winning at a fair line, so this game is a toss-up with the math going the other way.
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