#25 Oklahoma (-7.5) 33 #24 KANSAS 21
If Oklahoma can get past their 13-16 loss to rival Texas then they should be able to beat Kansas by more than a touchdown. Kansas is an overrated team whose offense isn't nearly as good as it appears to be. The Jayhawks have averaged an impressive 6.3 yards per play in 5 games against Division 1A opponents, but those opponents would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average offense. Oklahoma's defense is among the best in the nation, allowing 4.5 yppl to Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team, so the Sooners have a significant 0.7 yppl advantage when Kansas has the ball.
The Sooners have a similarly decisive edge when they have the ball, even with Sam Bradford shelved again with his bad shoulder, which he re-injured last week against Texas. Backup Landry Jones now has plenty of experience and his numbers aren't much difference from Bradford's numbers this season after compensating for strength of opposing defenses faced.
Bradford has averaged 7.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback, and Jones has averaged 6.3 yppp on 126 pass plays against Division 1A teams that would allow just 4.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Oklahoma's offense is 0.6 yppl better than average with Jones at quarterback and the Sooners should move the ball well against a mediocre Jayhawks' defense that has allowed 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to averaged 5.2 yppl against an average defense.
Not only does Oklahoma has a solid edge on both sides of the ball, but the Sooners have superior special teams and my math model gives Oklahoma a 56.5% chance of covering at -7 points.
There is a chance that the Sooners may suffer a letdown here after rival Texas handed them their 3rd loss of the season, but they still have a chance to win the Big 12 with just 1 conference loss and coach Stoops is 12-5 ATS in regular season games following a loss. I'd consider Oklahoma a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
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