Rutgers (-10.5) 21 ARMY 14
Rutgers is not a good team and certainly don't deserve to be favored by double-digits on the road tonight. In 4 games against Division 1A opposition the Scarlet Knights have been out-gained 4.7 yards per play to 5.8 yppl despite facing a schedule that is just average in difficulty with two good opponents (Cincy and Pitt) and two bad opponents (Maryland and FIU). Rutgers did beat their two sub-par opponents by an average score of 28.5 to 14, but they weren't that impressive in doing so, out-gaining Florida International and Maryland just 5.0 yppl to 4.5 yppl.
The reason they beat those bad teams by an average of 14.5 points is because they were a fortunate +8 in turnovers in those two games. The fact that they were an average of +4 in turnovers against two bad teams and only beat those teams by an average of 14.5 points really tells the story - Rutgers is a bad team.
Army is a bad team too, getting out-gained 4.4 yppl to 4.9 yppl by an easy schedule of opponents that would combine to get out-gained 6.0 yppl to 4.7 yppl by an average team. However, my math model only favors Rutgers by 7 points in this game and I'll lean with Army plus the points.
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