Beyond UFC 104: The Future of the Light Heavyweight Division

Well, UFC 104 is upon us and everyone is getting more and more excited to see the Light Heavyweight Champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida take on legendary brawler Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Predictions and speculations abound over who will win.  I think it will be Machida myself. 

But what happens after that? 

If Machida wins, it will be the first successful title defense in a long time. Having a little consistency at Light Heavyweight Champion would do worlds of good for the UFC right now. Over the past couple years, the title changes hands so fast that you barely have time to get to know the new champion. 

So who would be next for Machida if he beats Shogun? Unfortunately, the answer to this question is complicated. He's already beaten several of your best options: Thiago Silva, Rich Franklin, and Rashad Evans. 

The upcoming return of Tito Ortiz, no matter how successful, won't generate a compelling matchup for Machida. Once again, Machida already beat him. If he wins this Saturday, I’m seeing a high chance of rematches in Machida’s future. 

If Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida wins:

1. Quinton Jackson : Undoubtedly, Rampage is the best Top-10 Light Heavyweight to send up against Machida. Two things have to happen before you can make this match though. One: Rampage will have to finish with the “A Team” movie and come back out of retirement. Two: Rampage has an obligation to fight against Rashad Evans. I expect this would be his first fight upon returning. Rampage vs Machida is at least a year off, if it ever happens at all.  
2. Gegard Mousasi : If the UFC can find a way to sign “The Dreamcatcher” this would be a match made in heaven. Both Mousasi and Machida seem to be unbeatable. This would truly be a fight for “Best Light Heavyweight on the Planet.”  But how easily can Gegard be lured away from Strikeforce? He is their champion after all. If the UFC can find a way to sign Mousasi, this would be the best fight possible!  
3. Winner of Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera : This would be a great fight for the fans, whether it’s Vera or Couture. I don’t see either of them really challenging Machida, but it puts recognizable names in the octagon with the champion.  
4. Winner of Matt Hammill vs. Jon Jones : Neither Hammill, nor Jones have beaten a Top-10 Light Heavyweight yet, so throwing one of them a title-shot seems premature. The trouble is, they just might have to step up sooner than everyone thought. I think both of them are extremely under-rated, particularly Jonny “Bones” Jones. 
5. Ryan Bader : If he can beat Shafer, I think it might be high time to put Bader’s undefeated record to the test. Bader is a bit of an unknown. What we do know is that he is a pretty good all-around fighter. He’s undefeated, with four knockouts, three submissions, and two wins by decision. Like Hammill, or Jones, this is asking for a relatively unproven fighter to step up sooner than expected. 
6. Rematch with the winner of Rashad Evans vs Thiago Silva : I don’t foresee this as being an extremely compelling matchup.  Machida beat both of them so soundly they looked like amateurs.  Still, both of them are legit Top-10 fighters with big wins on their resumes. Your best option just might be a rematch.   
7. Forrest Griffin : I'm not really crazy about this option, but if Forrest beats Tito, then I suppose you could throw him into an upcoming title fight.
8. Anderson Silva : A fight against the Middleweight Champion is the fight that everyone is clamoring to see. The trouble is, Machida and Silva are friends and training partners. They’ve repeatedly vowed that they won’t fight each other. I don’t foresee this matchup ever happening, at least not anytime soon. But oh what a fight it would be!!

If Mauricio “Shogun” Rua wins: Okay, the “what’s next” picture for Rua is a lot easier.  All of the fights above would be options, but with Shogun, you have even more compelling options:   

1. Anderson Silva : There is some question whether Anderson would step up and fight the man that beat his best friend. He might decide not to so that Machida can do it for himself. Still, Anderson Silva would need very little convincing to fight Shogun. There’s some bad blood there stemming from the breakup of Chute Boxe. “The Spider” would love to beat down Shogun, make no mistake about it! And this is a fight that has a very good chance of actually happening!  
2. Winner of Rashad Evans vs Thiago Silva : The winner of this fight should be an obvious number one contender. Either one should be able to give Shogun all he can handle. And unlike Machida, Shogun has never fought either of them.  
3. Winner of Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz : You can believe that Shogun wants to avenge that rude welcome he got in his UFC debut at the hands of Griffin. If Forrest can beat Tito Ortiz, that might be enough of a winning streak to seal the deal. If Ortiz can win, I say “Why not?” Throw him in with Shogun and see how he does.  
4. Rematch with Quinton “Rampage” Jackson : This would be a very compelling rematch. Rampage getting a shot at revenge against the other Muay Thai brawler that humiliated him back in Pride. Quinton would still have to finish his stint in Hollywood, come out of retirement, and he’d probably have to beat Rashad Evans too.  
5. All of the same things as listed for Machida: Gegard Mousasi, Jon Jones, Matt Hammill, Randy Couture, Brandon Vera, Ryan Bader, etc. 

Whatever happens Saturday night, it should be very interesting to see what happens next at Light Heavyweight.