NORTH CAROLINA (-2.5) 25 Florida St. 22
This game boils down to how well a struggling T.J. Yates (5.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) can throw the ball against a horrible Florida State secondary that has allowed 9.1 yppp (to quarterbacks that would average 6.9 yppp against an average team).
The Seminoles did allow a bad Boston College pass attack to rack up 9.2 yppp a couple of weeks ago, but Yates hasn't necessarily flourished against the bad pass defenses he's faced, averaging 6.7 yppp against The Citadel, East Carolina and Georgia Southern - teams that would combine to allow 7.4 yppp to an average QB.
My math model projects 7.4 yppp for Yates in this game and predicts UNC's strong defense (3.7 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team) to limit a good Florida State attack (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl) to just 5.0 yppl in this game.
My math model predicts a 25-22 North Carolina victory, which is right on the number, so I'll pass this game.
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