Ryan Tannehill Isn't the Dolphins' Long-Term Solution at QB

It's always important to remember one fundamental truth about the NFL: The league isn't fair or even or equal, and there's never a sense of cosmic balance that spreads bad luck evenly. 

That applies to both teams and players, and it's a reality Ryan Tannehill knows well. The Miami Dolphins quarterback hasn't been on the field for a regular-season snap since Dec. 11, 2016, which is when he partially tore his ACL and suffered the first of two knee injuries. The second came during training camp in 2017, when he re-injured the same knee and needed to have season-ending surgery.

Tannehill knows all about the NFL's uneven distribution of soul-shattering injury luck. Now the circumstances have aligned for the perfect offseason storm, which could give him further experience with the league's coldness.

He'll be entering his age-30 season in 2018, putting him between being a young quarterback who's still developing and an old one who's decaying. Dolphins head coach Adam Gase may whisper sweet nothings about his quarterback in the offseason, as he did while speaking to the media Wednesday. But his actions when Tannehill was healthy carry much more weight.

He didn't trust Tannehill to throw far downfield—or throw much at all. And now the quarterback he wouldn't lean on, the one who struggles against pressure, is a salary cap boulder who's recovering from reconstructive knee surgery.

That's already a few strikes against Tannehill and his long-term future in Miami. The possible final blow? The Dolphins' No. 11 draft slot and their wandering eye, which has drifted toward Baker Mayfield.

Craig Ruttle/Associated Press

At the scouting combine, Gase said exactly what he was expected to say about Tannehill—or, more accurately, all he could say.

He called Tannehill a "physical freak" who is progressing well in his recovery, per Lindsay Jones of USA Today, adding that the 2012 No. 8 pick could be ready for the team's offseason program in April. The table-pounding statement came when Gase was asked about Tannehill's future and where the Dolphins could go with their quarterback depth chart.

When the new league year starts March 14, Tannehill will be the only quarterback with a single NFL start on the Dolphins roster (Jay Cutler, Matt Moore and David Fales will be free agents). That is shaky ground, but publicly at least, it doesn't sound like a problem for Gase.

"Ryan is going to be our starting quarterback, and I don't see that changing anytime soon," he said, per Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald.

The definition of "soon" in the NFL is a moving target, especially when it comes to quarterback performance. And as it concerns Tannehill, soon might arrive in 2019.

It's possible, and arguably likely, that Tannehill will face a threat from a high draft pick as early as late April. The Dolphins have been widely connected to the top quarterbacks in the draft, particularly Mayfield.

They spoke to the 2017 Heisman Trophy winner at the Senior Bowl and came away impressed, according to Barry Jackson of the Herald. They plan to speak with him again during a dinner March 13.

"Whether it's Mayfield or another quarterback, we believe there's at least some willingness inside the Dolphins to genuinely consider a quarterback at No. 11," Jackson reported.

It's uncertain whether Mayfield will be available, though he was in the latest mock draft by Bleacher Report's Matt Miller. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com made the same projection.

A trade into the back half of the top 10 to land Mayfield, or another top quarterback prospect if one falls, would be only a small jump, and it wouldn't take a massive investment.

Which is why it doesn't mean much if Tannehill's 2018 status is firm. Beyond that, the Dolphins could have an Alex Smith-like situation.

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

The Kansas City Chiefs made Smith a lame-duck starter when they traded up to draft his successor, Patrick Mahomes, in 2017. Smith played well during the 2017 season and was even in the MVP conversation at one point. But that mattered little after Mahomes was given a year to watch, learn and develop.

Smith will be traded in a move that becomes official once the new league year begins. The deal is part of several salary cap relief maneuvers by the Chiefs. They'll pay Mahomes a base salary of just $1.2 million in 2018, and going with him over Smith will save them $15.6 million against the cap, as Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star noted.

The Dolphins could take a similar path. They can draft one of the top quarterbacks in 2018, like Mayfield, well aware of the uncertainty surrounding Tannehill's health and that he's likely reached his ceiling. The anvil is that Tannehill's contract will fade away.

His cap hit will be $19.8 million in 2018, per Spotrac. The Dolphins are in a deep hole and projected to be $16.0 million over the salary cap. They will likely restructure Tannehill's deal, but that would just push the problem further down the road to 2019, when Tannehill will be 31 years old and soaking up $21.1 million in cap space.

The easiest and most convenient solution would be to make sure Tannehill is playing somewhere else by 2019. The only way he should avoid that fate is by staying healthy and taking a bounding leap forward in performance.

Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press/Associated Press

Tannehill improved in 2016 under Gase, finishing with career bests in yards per attempt (7.7), completion percentage (67.1) and passer rating (93.5). But he did that with a highly managed and limited workload, as the offensive focus shifted elsewhere, which doesn't exactly show confidence in his franchise quarterback status.

Tannehill averaged only 29.9 passing attempts per game in 2016, which ranked a lowly 29th. That led to an equally disastrous average of 230.4 yards per game through the air, a drop of 32.6 yards from 2015.

He improved as a deep-ball thrower but still ranked only ninth with an adjusted completion percentage of 47.4 on throws that traveled 20 yards or more through the air, according to Pro Football Focus. That percentage is inflated by his lack of attempts too.

He also isn't comfortable under pressure, even after five seasons and 77 games of NFL experience. In 2016, Tannehill recorded a passer rating of 49.1 when under pressure, per PFF, which ranked seventh-worst of the 33 quarterbacks who logged at least 200 passing attempts.

His play, contract and injury have put the Dolphins in a position that seems difficult but should instead be treated as a golden opportunity to draft a better and cheaper quarterback.

NFL roster construction is a process rooted in maximizing value. The goal is to squeeze as much as possible out of every dollar before smacking up against the salary cap.

That means discarding veterans who are broken, underproducing or unnecessarily expensive. Tannehill is all three, which means the beginning of the end of his time in Miami could come on opening night of the 2018 draft.