UFC 104: Shogun Rua's Recipe for an Upset

(Photo by Gary M. Prior/Getty Images).

This Saturday, October 24th, live from the Staples Center in Los Angeles, Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida looks to defend his light-heavyweight title against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.

Machida is an extremely unique fighter. His blend of Karate, Sumo, and BJJ has proved to be quite the puzzle for opposing fights to figure out, a puzzle that has yet to be solved.

Machida's unblemished 15-0 record is quite impressive, but what makes his record the stuff of legend is the fact that he competes in MMA's premier division and has yet to lose a round inside the Octagon.

But, alas, all good things must come to an end.

Machida's end will be a 6'1" light-heavyweight wrecking machine, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.

While Shogun has been somewhat lackluster since making his UFC debut, he was once widely considered to be the best light-heavyweight in the world. Shogun is a BJJ black belt and utilizes a devastating brand for Muay Thai.

There are many out there who believe that Shogun does not have what it takes to defeat the masterfully skilled Machida, but something tells me that we are going to see the best Shogun we ever have.

Just saying that Shogun will do the unthinkable is one thing, but for it to actually happen Shogun must execute in these three key areas.

Cut off the Cage

Machida fights in a frustrating manner. He has developed the uncanny ability to inflict damage on his opponent while backing away and eluding the attack. If Shogun is going to have any success he is going to have to cut the cage off.

Most who have fought Machida have made the mistake of simply pressing forward, walking right into the Dragon's lair. What Shogun must do is create opportunities and angles by circling.

Be Unpredictable

Machida is great because he has the ability to exploit the tiniest flaw in his opponent’s style. Machida's non-aggressive style allows him to gauge and time his opponent’s attacks. Shogun's style is unpredictable so this should come naturally to him.

Shogun must fight with a controlled wildness to throw off Machida's timing. Being controlled in his unpredictability will be key. The goal is to appear out of control while not getting sloppy. With a master like Machida in the cage the slightest opening could spell disaster.

Be Patient

Wait, wait, and then wait some more. Shogun needs to remain calm and not allow Machida's backpedalling style frustrate him. Frustration leads to being sloppy, and a sloppy attack will lead to another Machida KO victory.

This may be the most difficult thing for Shogun to incorporate into his game plan but I also feel that it is the most important. In order to beat someone like Machida, Shogun is going to have to take his time and pick his spots. Know when to jump in and know when to hang back.

Saturday night the Shogun of old will re-emerge and will look better than ever. Shogun comes into this fight with a great game plan and executes it to perfection leading to yet another changing of the guard in the light-heavyweight division.

Shogun Rua slays the Dragon and wins via 3rd round TKO

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